The personnel grouping that makes Rams dangerous can’t save a deficit
· Yahoo Sports
The rest of the NFL was quick to emulate the Los Angeles Rams’ frequent deployment of 13 personnel (one RB, three TE’s) over the offseason.
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But LA was forced off their spot as soon as Week 1. The San Francisco 49ers took away the Rams’ most effective personnel grouping and cornered them into running 11 personnel (one RB, one TE) at a 56% clip.
The problem being that the Rams’ offensive production fell off a cliff when they transitioned away from 13 personnel, which underscores an offseason-long issue. LA passed on upgrading over Jordan Whittington and Konata Mumpfield at third receiver through free agency and the draft. It’s completely unsurprising that neither player is able to carve into the target share of Puka Nacua or Davante Adams. This is not something that can be fixed in the short-term, and the Rams have already spent plenty of draft capital on acquiring Trent McDuffie and Myles Garrett. You can try to go back to the well. It might be dry.
Of course, 11 personnel being less effective than 13 personnel is a problem. The bigger, ongoing concern is the fact that the 49ers were easily able to get the Rams out of their comfort zone.
How did they do it? Well, they built an early lead.
If you are hoping to cut into a deficit, you aren’t going to lean into 13 personnel. Teams need more firepower through the air, and usually it helps to have as many receivers on the field as possible. Heavier personnel also requires the threat of a commitment to the run game. Passing in 13 is a changeup off the running game. It’s difficult to live in a traditional drop back world with mostly marginal athletes on the field.
These limitations were perfectly acceptable if the Rams were the world beaters we were told they would be. Through one week that has not been the case, and now LA’s best defensive player—Myles Garrett—will sit out for at least the next four games.
The Rams may still be a good or even great team. Their chance of building a lead early and then milking it with heavier personnel packages may at least be mitigated in the short term.
Sean McVay is one of the best offensive play callers in the NFL. His decision making is still subject to situational football and the overall game script.
The Rams may not be who McVay wants them to be this year simply because the score might force them to change.