Bucky Irving is in line to crush his ADP, Christian Watson to the moon and other early fantasy football takeaways

· Yahoo Sports

Week 1 reactions are always a challenge for fantasy football purposes. We’re working off a small sample, but we want to be early to trends, too. We want to identify the signals, ignore the noise. We can never forget that after one week last year, Justin Fields was the QB2, Keon Coleman was the WR2, Hollywood Brown was the WR9, that type of thing.

Caveats established, let’s look at some of the Week 1 usage and try to figure out what’s going on.

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Maybe Tampa fans would blanche at the word perfect, because Irving did lose a fumble and the Buccaneers lost at Cincinnati. But Irving stayed relevant while Tampa played catch-up, securing all seven of his targets for 48 yards. He also produced as a runner (8-45-1), finding lanes behind a strong offensive line.

Irving’s stock took a summer hit because the Buccaneers signed Kenny Gainwell and kept intriguing third-string RB Sean Tucker as a possible goal-line threat. But in Week 1, Gainwell was limited to just one reception, and Tucker (who took a pay cut in the summer) was inactive due to a hamstring injury.

Gainwell is seen as a better pass blocker than Irving, and that’s a path to a role here. But Irving ran 21 routes to Gainwell’s 13 in Week 1, and for their careers Irving has been the more productive receiver (8.5 YPC, 89.4% catch rate, 7.6 YPT compared to 6.9, 78.6%, 5.4). Obviously the Buccaneers lost Week 1 and that’s when teams are more incentivized to make adjustments. But so long as Irving doesn’t miss a few blocking assignments and get Baker Mayfield crushed, he’s probably in line to easily outpace his summer ADP.

It’s a bitter pill, watching Loveland take a zero in a gmae where the Bears rack up 59 points. But it’s not as if Loveland was in the trenches all day. He ran a route on 89% of the team’s dropbacks, tops on the club. Caleb Williams missed one end-zone throw to Loveland that could have been a touchdown. I still can’t unsee the target barrage Loveland ended last season with (48 targets, 28-378-2) and I’m not moving off my lofty expectations here.

We do have to consider that Kalif Raymond could be a fantasy disruptor — active enough to get in the way of other name brand players, but perhaps not consistent enough to start in his own right. Raymond ran 22 routes — same as Rome Odunze, five fewer than Luther Burden III — and was targeted on nine of those routes. He’s quickly built rapport with Williams and excels at running routes that become quickly defined throws. Maybe he could become a PPR scammer like Wan’Dale Robinson was back in 2024, an underneath catch collector.

It’s easy to get excited when a receiver throws a 6-147-2 line on the board, but the usage trends with Watson are especially encouraging. He was on the field for three quarters of the snaps, a notable bump over his career mark of 63%.The eight targets were more than usual — it’s just the sixth time in his career Watson has made it to that number. Jordan Love targeted his receivers at the second-highest rate in Week 1, and the Green Bay running backs were essentially ignored in the passing game (two targets, zero catches).

Josh Jacobs could come back at some point, but he’ll be working behind a horrible offensive line. So long as that same OL doesn’t get Love injured, the Packers could morph into a top-5 passing team in 2026. Watson’s hurdles to fantasy stardom have always been a pesky WR platoon (it’s shelved now) and consistent injuries (keep those fingers crossed). He’s looking like a set-and-forget option for the fresh season, especially if the Packers are forced to stay aggressive to offset a mediocre defense on the other side.

A modest 12 running backs saw a snap count of 70% or higher in Week 1. Most of these names are fantasy royalty — guys like Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook III. It was reassuring to see Ashton Jeanty make the list right away, after a summer where little went right. We know Chase Brown is a heavy-usage player. Ditto Saquon Barkley.

But don’t miss Hubbard on this list. He checked in at 71% snaps, while Jonathon Brooks only ran on 19% of the snaps. Hubbard was more effective as a runner, and busier as a receiver (though Brooks did have one snappy 48-yard reception). Hubbard had a successful run on 70% of his attempts, and finished the week as the RB9.

Hubbard has given us fantasy relevance before, checking in as the RB15 back in 2024. Brooks had exciting moments during his career at Texas, but he’s also dealt with two ACL blowouts. At best, Brooks is a slow-developing Polaroid, someone who might be able to help us later in the season. Hubbard is the boring veteran value to trust now, one of those Play for Today picks.

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