Will the incoming El Niño impact grocery prices?
· The South African
The African Development Bank has warned about the impact El Niño will have on the continent. South Africans are being told to prepare for scorching temperatures. But the temperatures aren’t the only thing that could increase; grocery prices could soar.
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Is South Africa prepared?
How El Niño Will Affect Grocery Prices
El Niño, a weather pattern that leads to higher temperatures and drier conditions, results in subdued harvests for rainfed crops. The knock-on effect means rising food costs.
According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), food inflation peaked at 5.9% in 2015, the last time the country experienced a severe El Niño. Extreme drought conditions meant the country had to import maize to cover the shortfall.
Bread and cereal increased by 7.5% by the end of 2015. Oils and fats increased by 14.1% and vegetables, sugar, sweets and desserts increased by 9.4%.
Yet experts suggest South Africa will survive the upcoming El Niño despite warnings it will be severe and could cost the continent billions.
Products El Niño Could Impact
South Africans will be sheltered from the effects of El Niño this summer, according to AgriSA’s Chief Operating Officer Jolanda Andrag, who spoke to Farmer’s Weekly. The country anticipates a record-breaking maize harvest thanks to La Niña conditions that brought rains and improved harvesting conditions.
But should severe weather conditions persist, summer 2027 may not be smooth sailing.
These are the items that could be impacted:
Meat: South African cattle rely on grass and grain. Drier conditions reduce pasture grazing and feed. Cattle and poultry farmers can’t meet the country’s needs, and prices rise. In 2015, meat prices rose by 4.1%.
Seed Oils: It’s not just vegetable and cooking oil that El Niño will impact. Products relying on these oils will increase. Baby formula, chocolate, ice cream, and many processed foods all contain seed oils.
Maize meal: Data from Stats SA show that South Africans in urban areas spend 25% of their grocery basket on maize products. El Niño conditions can impact maize meal, sorghum and other cereal grains.
Sugar: Despite the country having a robust sugar cane production, South Africa imports a lot of sugar. El Niño’s impact on the climate in these regions can drive up sugar prices.
Chocolate: Chocolate lovers will be most affected by El Niño conditions. Sugar, seed oils, and cocoa, key ingredients in chocolate, will increase.