Jackson Flora MLB mock draft: Where is UC Santa Barbara ace projected?

· Yahoo Sports

When the 2026 MLB Draft begins July 13 in Philadelphia ahead of the All-Star Game, UC Santa Barbara right-handed pitcher Jackson Flora is expected to be one of the first names taken off the board.

That moment will launch his professional career, which will likely begin in late July or early August, once he signs, either at his new team's spring training complex or rookie ball, or even both.

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Fans still have some time to watch and scout the projected top-5 pick at the collegiate level, as the 6-5 right-hander has helped lead UC Santa Barbara to the NCAA Baseball Tournament.

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Flora has taken a big jump in his development this season, transforming into one of the top pitching prospects at the mid-major level while also taking on a larger workload on the Gauchos' pitching staff, which is top 10 in ERA and WHIP.

He enters the postseason 11-0 in 15 starts (two complete game shutouts) with a nation-leading 1.05 ERA. A semifinalist for the Golden Spikes Award, the highest individual honor handed out in college baseball, Flora has 124 strikeouts this season and has held opponents to a .169 batting average in 94 1/3 innings of work.

Here's what to know about Flora's MLB draft projections and more as UC Santa Barbara competes in the Austin Regional of the NCAA Baseball Tournament this weekend:

Jackson Flora MLB draft projections

Flora is projected to be a first-round draft pick by MLB draft analysts.

Here's a breakdown of exactly where MLB draft analysts have Flora being taken:

Jackson Flora MLB draft rankings, grades

MLB Pipeline has Flora as the No. 4 overall prospect and the No. 1 pitching prospect in the upcoming MLB draft.

His fastball has a 70 scouting grade — an individual tool used with the MLB draft, where players are graded on a scale of 20-80 in different categories — according to MLB Pipeline. Flora's other scouting grades include a 55 for his slider, his changeup and command. He has an overall scouting grade of 60, which Major League Baseball defines as "above average."

As noted by USA TODAY, the scouting grades assigned to a player are usually based on what the player will eventually develop into rather than where they stand at the time of being drafted or early on in their professional career.

Here's MLB Pipeline's scouting report on Flora:

"Flora's combination of size and arm strength should intrigue most teams. The 6-foot-5 right-hander already offers premium velocity, with a fastball that sits in the 96-97 mph range and regularly touches triple digits, with good shape, carry and armside ride to it. He'll employ two different sliders, both of which can flash plus. There's a slower 78-81 mph sweeper with a lot of horizontal depth and also a harder, more gyro-like traditional slider, thrown 86-89 mph. He has plus feel to spin and just needs to gain a little bit more consistency with shape. His hard changeup is coming along, a kick change with downer splitter depth that now flashes plus.

"A solid strike-thrower who maintains his velocity, Flora might not have the same feel to pitch Bremner had, but he's more physical than his predecessor. He's posting every week for the Gauchos and has separated himself more than any college arm in the class, so he should fly off the board early in the first round."

Jackson Flora stats

Here's a year-by-year look at Flora's stats at UC Santa Barbara:

  • 2024: 3-2 record with a 3.82 ERA and five saves in 47.0 innings pitched with 40 strikeouts and 25 walks
  • 2025: 6-3 record with a 3.60 ERA in 75.0 innings pitched with 86 strikeouts and 17 walks
  • 2026: 11-0 record with a 1.05 ERA in 94 1/3 inning pitched with 124 strikeouts and 30 walks

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Jackson Flora MLB draft latest mock projections for UC Santa Barbara ace

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