March Madness odds, lines, predictions: Expert picks for 2026 NCAA Tournament games on Day 1 (March 19)
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We are picking two double-digit seeds to advance on Day 1 of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
We didn't pick McNeese last year. The Cowboys became the ultimate aura team with a victory against Clemson, and now they will try to be that lucky No. 12 seed one more time against No. 5 Vanderbilt.
Will No. 11 VCU rekindle its reputation as a bracket buster against No. 6 North Carolina? That is another question we have in the first round. No. 1 Duke, No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Houston all are in action Thursday. How many of those high seeds will cover? Ten games have double-digit spreads.
Of course, the tournament starts with one of those 50-50 games between No. 8 Ohio State and No. 9 TCU.
MARCH MADNESS HQ:Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Printable bracket
We will look to replicate the success we had picking NCAA tournament games – which included a 50-13 S/U record and a 37-26 record ATS. Sporting News will pick every first-round game over the next two days. Here are our picks for Day 1.
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
March Madness picks, predictions for Round 1
- No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5) vs. No. 9 TCU (East), 12:15 p.m., CBS
The Buckeyes have covered in their last five games – and they have hit the over in four of those games. Senior Bruce Thornton (20.2 ppg.) takes advantage of his first tournament appearance against a TCU team that will try to dominate inside with David Punch (14.3 ppg.) and Xavier Edmonds (12.6 ppg.). This is a classic 8-9 toss-up to start Thursday.
Pick: Ohio State 74, TCU 70
- No. 3 Nebraska (-13) vs. No. 13 Troy (South), 12:40 p.m., truTV
The Huskers are trying to win their first NCAA tournament game in school history. The Trojans were 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season and covered as double-digit dogs against USC and San Diego State. Thomas Dowd averages 14.8 points and 10.1 rebounds This could be tight in the second half. The Huskers are 2-4 ATS when favored by double digits.
Pick: Nebraska 82, Troy 74
- No. 6 Louisville (-5.5) vs. No. 11 South Florida (East), 1:30 p.m., TNT
South Florida has won 10 straight games, and guard Wes Enis averaged 24.8 points per game in the last four wins. Louisville is 50-18 the last two seasons under Pat Kelsey, who is looking for his first tournament victory with the Cardinals. The Bulls allowed 100-plus points in losses to Alabama and Oklahoma State this season.
Pick: Louisville 85, South Florida 75
- No. 5 Wisconsin (-10) vs. No. 12 High Point (West), 1:30 p.m., TBS
High Point ranks fourth in the nation in scoring at 90 points per game with a collection of players from the transfer portal. They also score 18.8 ppg. on fast-break points. Wisconsin is a fast-paced team, too. The Badgers have scored 90-plus points in 14 games and hit 15 or more 3-pointers in 10 games. The line is right on target.
Pick: Wisconsin 89, High Point 80
- No. 1 Duke (-28) vs. No. 16 Siena (East), 2:50 p.m., CBS
Siena coach Gerry McNamara – a Syracuse icon – has the Saints in the tournament. Guard Gavin Doty averages 17.9 points per game. The Blue Devils have injuries to starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Nogongba. Duke averaged 75.6 points per game in the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils are 4-4 ATS when favored by 25 points or more this season – but we think they make an early statement heading into the second round.
Pick: Duke 88, Siena 58
- No. 5 Vanderbilt (-11.5) vs. No. 12 McNeese (South), 3:15 p.m., truTV
Here is one of our double-digit upsets – even if it feels more like a reach this season. McNeese leads the nation in turnover margin –k and Larry Johnson (17.5 ppg.) is a prolific scorer that will challenge Vanderbilt guards Tyler Tanner (19.2 ppg.) and Duke Miles (16.4 ppg.). Vanderbilt is 5-1 S/U when favored between 10-20 points this season, but 2-4 ATS.
Pick: McNeese 78, Vanderbilt 77
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
- No. 3 Michigan State (-16.5) vs. No. 14 North Dakota State (East), 4:05 p.m. , TNT
The Spartans had a disappointing showing in the Big Ten tournament, which means Tom Izzo should have them ready for North Dakota State. The Bison are 0-4 in their NCAA tournament history, and they lost those games by an average of 14 points per game. Michigan State is 8-0 S/U and 3-5 ATS when favored between 10-20 points. Look for Jeremy Fears Jr. to score 20-plus points in a Michigan State victory.
Pick: Michigan State 79, North Dakota State 61
- No. 4 Arkansas (-15) vs. No. 13 Hawai'i (West), 4:05 p.m., TBS
Arkansas is hot coming off the SEC tournament title, and freshman phenom Darius Acuff Jr. averages 22.7 points per game. Hawaii is an interesting challenge with 7-foot center Isaac Robinson (14.1 ppg.), and the Warriors rank 25th in the nation in free-throw attempts. Can they slow down Arkansas with foul trouble?
Pick: Arkansas 79, Hawai'i 68
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year
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- No. 6 North Carolina (-2) vs. No. 11 VCU (South), 6:50 p.m., TNT
We have telegraphed this upset all week, so it's an obligation to pull it. VCU has balance with seven players who have at least seven points per game. The Tar Heels are without star freshman Caleb Wilson. The Tar Heels are 1-4 S/U when favored by 10 points or less. North Carolina center Henri Veesaar – a 7-foot center who averages 16.7 points per game – makes it tough, but we're sticking with the Atlantic 10 champions.
Pick: VCU 83, North Carolina 81
- No. 1 Michigan (TBD) vs. No. 16 UMBC/Howard (Midwest), 7:10 p.m., CBS
Michigan plays the winner of Tuesday's play-in game against UMBC and Howard. The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS since guard LJ Cason's season-ending knee injury, but those were Big Ten tournament teams.
Pick: TBD
- No. 6 BYU (TBD) vs. No. 11 Texas/NC State (West), 7:25 p.m., TBS
The Cougars face the winner of the Longhorns and Wolfpack play-in game. BYU forward AJ Dybantsa – the nation's leading scorer – averaged 31 points per game in three Big 12 tournament games.
Pick: TBD.
- No. 7 Saint Mary's (-3) vs. No. 10 Texas A&M (South), 7:35 p.m., truTV
Which style wins out? The Aggies have been hit-or-miss with first-year coach Bucky McMillan, and they average 87.7 points per game playing “Bucky Ball.” Saint Mary's is a tournament regular, and the matchup in the post between Aggies forward Rashaun Agee (14.7 ppg., 8.9 rpg.) and Gaels forward Paulius Murauskas (18.8 ppg,, 7.7 rpg.) should be amazing. This one will come down to the last minute.
Pick: Saint Mary's 79, Aggies 74
IN-DEPTH REGION BREAKDOWNS: East | West | Midwest | South
- No. 3 Illinois (-24.5) vs. No. 14 Penn (South), 9:25 p.m., TNT
Illinois is a huge favorite against the Quakers, who made the tournament after a 44-point performance by TJ Power in the Ivy League tournament championship. Fran McCaffery – a former Iowa coach — knows Illinois well, too. Penn had blowout losses to Villanova and Providence – but they only gave up 80 or more points six times this season.
Pick: Illinois 84, Penn 64
- No. 8 Georgia (-2.5) vs. No. 9 Saint Louis (Midwest), 9:45 p.m., CBS
This might be the most entertaining game of the first day. Georgia (89.8 ppg.) and St. Louis (87.2 ppg.) have top-10 scoring offenses. The Bulldogs lead the nation in fast-break points at 19.9. St. Louis forward Robbie Avila finally gets his tournament moment, but Georgia will win its first tournament game since 2002.
Pick: Georgia 87, St. Louis 83
- No. 3 Gonzaga (-20.5) vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State (West), 10 p.m., TNT
The Bulldogs are 2-4 ATS when favored by 20-25 points, which makes this a tricky line to pick. Gonzaga has scored 90 or more points in 14 games. Forward Braden Huff (knee) is still out, but that won't slow the Bulldogs down here. The Owls rank 31st in the nation in scoring – but how long can they keep up in a close-to-home game for Gonzaga in Portland?
Pick: Gonzaga 90, Kennesaw State 72
- No. 2 Houston (-23.5) vs. No. 15 Idaho (South), 10:10 p.m., truTV
Houston typically does not play around in the first round. The Cougars have won by 30-plus points in the first round three times in the last five years. Those five victories are by an average of 26.8 points per game. The Vandals are 1-13 S/U when held to less than 75 points.
Pick: Houston 81, Idaho 54