2026 College Football Week 10 Best Bets: 5 picks for Nov 7 including Miami vs Notre Dame, Utah vs BYU
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It is the weekend of the season! There are seven top-25-ranked matchups this weekend, with implications across the country for playoff positioning and even the Heisman Trophy. I don't think it's wise to go anywhere except your couch or a sports bar on Saturday. Let's make it five straight winning weeks! Game odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
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B#9 YU at #3 Utah (-4.5): O/U 49.5
I am going right back to the well and riding this Utes defense early in the Holy War. Utah has an NCAA-best 0.9 first-quarter points per game allowed and has given up six total first-quarter points all season, three to Arkansas and three to Cincinnati. This is undoubtedly the biggest game of the Big 12 season, and a sluggish start either way is possible with this being an early kick at 10 AM MT.
BYU is tied 21st in the country with 8.0 points per game in the first quarter, scoring in every first quarter except at TCU, and that was when LJ Martin got injured. Since then, BYU has scored seven points in the first quarter of four straight games. Now BYU gets Martin back for the biggest game, and despite the spread moving back a point from 5.5 to 4.5, I still think Utah does what they've done all season. I like BYU to go Under their first-quarter team total of 3.5 at -145 odds. It looks like the books are making us pay for the juice and will offer a 2.5 for plus money on Saturday. I'll take the 3.5 now.
Pick: BYU 1Q Team Total Under 3.5 (1 unit)
#1 Miami at #11 Notre Dame (-7): O/U 54.5
I couldn't believe the look-ahead spread for this game was Notre Dame -3.5, so I took Miami on Oct. 31. Then, Malachi Toney injured his ankle in Tuesday's practice, and the spread ballooned to Notre Dame -7.5. Toney accounts for 1,027 of Miami's 2,659 receiving yards (38.6%), and he caught 13 out of Miami’s 28 passing touchdowns (46.4%), so he's obviously a big deal, but what an opportunity for the other receivers, right?
Cooper Barkate was Darian Mensah's No. 1 receiver at Duke last year and steps into that role this week with the Hurricanes. Elijah Lofton is one of the best tight ends in the country and has also taken a back seat to Toney's superior season. Daylyn Upshaw and Vandrevius Jacobs are two more receivers who had expectations as role players in this offense, but now have a chance to shine in South Bend.
There's also the fact that Notre Dame is down four starters on defense. The Irish are without LB Drayk Bowen, S Brauntae Johnson, CB DJ McKinney, and DL Jason Onye. Those are just the confirmed guys; there are a few questionable. This isn't the same defense as we saw against BYU, where Bowen, McKinney, and Onye all started (but didn't finish).
Mensah is fighting for the Heisman, as is CJ Carr, but we know one has won big games and the other hasn't. Carr's biggest win is a debate, maybe Arkansas, Pitt, or USC last year; maybe Wisconsin this year? He hasn't won a big game yet, and this is the #1 team in the country. I’m riding with Miami still at +7.5 and think this comes down to the final possession.
Picks: Miami +7.5 (1 unit), Miami +3.5 (1.5 units), Miami ML (0.5 unit)
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#8 UCLA (-4) at Minnesota: O/U 38.5
UCLA is the only team in the country perfect against the spread. UCLA has covered all eight games this season, including last week as a -22-point favorite against Nevada. Coming off the non-conference snoozer, UCLA flies across the country to take on Minnesota at 11 AM CT. The only other time UCLA went East was the 54-3 thrashing of Maryland in a noon ET kickoff. However, Maryland and Minnesota are not comparable.
PJ Fleck has Minnesota scrapping and scraping away in every contest. Minnesota took Indiana to OT before losing 23-16, upset Iowa the week prior, and beat Washington and Michigan by nine combined points. There was the weird 28-point loss at Purdue that still can't be explained, but other than that, Minnesota has played their Big 10 schedule tight to the vest. Drake Lindsey isn't someone I feel confident betting on, but the Minnesota defense and special teams units could make this close and gift the Gophers advantageous field position at times. Screw it. I am taking Minnesota +4.5.
Pick: Minnesota +4.5 (1 unit)
Air Force at Army (-4): O/U 43.5
Five years with NBC, and I don't think I've ever missed a Service Academy Under. Since 2005, when service academy schools play one another (Air Force, Navy, Army), the Under is 47-12-1 (79.6%). In the last 10 meetings between Air Force and Army, the Under has been a perfect 10-0. I could give you more stats and injury news, but you get the drift. It's an automatic Under until I am six feet Under. I played 44.5 at -115 and -120. I'd go down to 43.5, but prefer 44.5.
Pick: Under 44.5 (1 unit)
#5 Alabama at #14 LSU (-5.5): O/U 52.5
This is a tough game to handicap because LSU has lost its two biggest games (Kentucky, Ole Miss), and Alabama isn't playing its best football lately, with two losses in the last three games. Alabama’s won three straight meetings and 12 of the past 15, but we have now entered the Lane Kiffin era, so throw all the records out! I do like a prop in this matchup, though, more than picking a side or the total. One of the avenues for a LSU win is Sam Leavitt continuing the heater he’s on.
In the first five games of the season, Leavitt threw at least one interception in every game, and he hasn't thrown any in the past two. Leavitt only had two games with two or more touchdown passes in the first five games, but has thrown seven total in the past two games and now tossed two or more touchdowns in five straight.
Only Kamario Taylor (3) and Ashton Daniels (2) have tossed two or more touchdowns on Alabama this year, but Leavitt is a gunslinger. Leavitt probably becomes the third and final quarterback in the regular season to throw for two or more scores against Alabama. Leavitt to throw 2+ Passing Touchdowns is -136 to -140 odds at some places and -180 at others. Shop around.
Pick: Sam Leavitt 2+ Passing TDs (1 unit)
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Season Record: 52-35-1 (59.7%) +17.91 units
Week 0 Record: 1-2 -1.57 units
Week 1 Record: 6-4 +0.96 units
Week 2 Record: 4-5 -0.97 units
Week 3 Record: 8-1 +6.8 units
Week 4 Record: 7-7 -0.22 units
Week 5 Record: 3-6 -3.77 units
Week 6 Record: 5-2-1 +2.94 units
Week 7 Record: 7-3 +4.27 units
Week 8 Record: 4-1 +3.0 units
Week 9 Record: 7-4 +6.47 units
Week 10 Picks
1 unit: BYU 1Q Team Total Under 3.5 (-145)
1 unit: Minnesota +4.5 (-115)
1 unit: Army vs Air Force Under 44.5 (-115)
1 unit: Sam Leavitt 2+ TD Passes (-136)
1 unit: Miami +7.5 (-120)
1.5 units: Miami +3.5 (-110) — bet last week before Toney injury
0.5 units: Miami ML (+142) — last week before Toney injury
Week 10 Articles
Heisman Rankings
Week 10 Top 25 Poll
Georgia vs Ole Miss Game Preview
Alabama vs LSU Game Preview
BYU vs Utah Game Preview
Miami vs Notre Dame Game Preview
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