SCOUTING RB LEIPZIG: The chances conceded explain their uneven start
· Yahoo Sports
There has been little middle ground for RB Leipzig this season. Six league games under Martín Demichelis have brought three wins, three defeats and 27 goals across the two ends. They have spent almost as long trailing as leading. The attack has given them plenty to work with; the defence has left them plenty to resolve.
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Only one Bundesliga side has bettered Leipzig’s 16 non-penalty goals. Their chance creation is strong, too—12.5 non-penalty expected goals (npxG), the fourth-highest total in the league, at 2.08 per match. Finishing has lifted their return 3.5 goals above expectation, but the chances themselves offer encouragement. Leipzig’s fifth and sixth fixtures produced their strongest spell, with an average of 2.41 npxG.
Christopher Nkunku has made the most of his opportunities, scoring four times from 2.5 npxG. Ezechiel Banzuzi has accumulated almost as much chance value—2.4 npxG—but has just one goal to show for it. Willi Orbán is next with 1.7 npxG and one goal, a notable contribution from a centre-back.
There is no shortage of attempts. Leipzig have taken 107 non-penalty shots, or 17.8 per game, with an average value of 0.12 npxG. Their average shooting distance of 16.3 metres is the seventh-shortest in the Bundesliga. Taken together, those figures describe an attack producing both volume and a respectable supply of chances from closer range.
At the other end, Leipzig have conceded 9.9 npxG, an average of 1.65 per match and the eighth-lowest figure in the division. Their 11 non-penalty goals conceded sit reasonably close to that expectation. The goals against cannot simply be put down to unusually clinical opponents.
There have been signs of greater control. Across their second and third matches, Leipzig allowed just 0.86 npxG per game. Sustaining that level has proved harder.
Their defensive activity takes place relatively far from their own goal. Tackles, interceptions, recoveries, clearances and blocked passes come at an average distance of 35.2 metres from the goal line, the fifth-highest mark in the league. That does not, by itself, make Leipzig an especially aggressive pressing side. Their PPDA of 12.7 ranks 11th for pressing intensity, compared with a league average of 12.0. Opponents are allowed slightly more passes between Leipzig’s qualifying defensive actions outside their own defensive third than they are against the average Bundesliga team. In possession, Leipzig’s centre-backs receive the ball an average of 40.2 metres from their own goal line, which ranks 11th.
Demichelis has most often used a 4-3-3, and Leipzig circulate the ball extensively. They complete 424 open-play passes per match, the fourth-highest average in the Bundesliga. Orbán and Ridle Baku have been their most frequent passing partners, exchanging 80 completed passes.
That passing volume gives Leipzig a territorial advantage, though a fairly modest one. Their field tilt—their share of all final-third passes in their matches—is 54.5%, seventh in the league. They have held the larger share in four of six fixtures. Across the pitch’s 24 zones, Leipzig have controlled seven, taking more than 55% of the touches in each; their opponents have controlled five. Meanwhile, 23.6% of Leipzig’s received passes arrive in the final third, the ninth-highest proportion in the division.
Their passing has nevertheless generated the league’s fifth-highest expected threat (xT) total: 9.4, or 1.57 per game. David Raum leads the individual contributions with 1.46 xT, ahead of Antonio Nusa on 1.11 and Brajan Gruda on 0.85.
The clearest expression of Leipzig’s uneven start is the time spent on either side of the scoreline. Across 582 minutes, including stoppage time, they have led for 248 minutes and trailed for 237. Just 97 minutes have been played level. They rank sixth in the Bundesliga for time spent ahead, yet have spent almost as much of the season chasing games.