NASCAR Chase Halfway Report: What We’ve Learned and What Comes Next
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Five races down. Five to go.
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The first half of NASCAR’s revived 10-race Chase has already delivered a fairly dramatic rewrite of the championship picture. Kyle Larson entered the postseason 55 points behind the leader. He leaves Las Vegas Motor Speedway halfway to the finale with a 40-point advantage over Denny Hamlin.
That’s a 95-point swing in five races.
But Larson’s lead is only part of what the opening half has revealed. Chase Briscoe just delivered perhaps his strongest performance of the season. Hamlin and Christopher Bell have watched promising afternoons unravel. Team Penske is lurking. And the schedule is about to shift away from the intermediate tracks that have dominated the past two weekends.
Halfway through the Chase, here’s what we know and what could define the final five races.
Kyle Larson Has Become the Driver Everyone Is Chasing
Larson’s speed isn’t exactly breaking news. The consistency surrounding it is what should concern everyone else.
He has finished inside the top five in each of the first five Chase races, winning twice along the way. Even more telling was what happened Sunday at Las Vegas. Larson’s car was badly off early, a lengthy green-flag stop dropped him a lap down and he scored just one stage point.
He still finished second.
That ability to turn a potentially costly afternoon into another near-win is why the standings suddenly look the way they do. Hamlin is 40 points back. Bell is 55 behind. Joey Logano trails by 71, Ryan Blaney by 80 and Briscoe by 84.
Larson doesn’t need to dominate every week if the No. 5 team keeps rescuing the races when it doesn’t.
The Biggest Threat to Larson May Be Missed Opportunities
Las Vegas provided the clearest example yet.
With Larson struggling early, Hamlin started from the pole and led 39 of the first 80 laps. Then he spun late in Stage 1, later dealt with mechanical trouble and finished 16th. Bell ran near the front before losing power steering and finishing 23rd. Logano managed 10th.
The Chase isn’t short on drivers capable of beating Larson. What’s been missing is someone consistently capitalizing when he leaves the door open.
That’s a dangerous habit with only half the championship remaining.
Chase Briscoe Isn’t Going Away Quietly
If anyone took advantage at Las Vegas, it was Briscoe.
The Joe Gibbs Racing driver swept both stages, led a race-high 175 of 267 laps and won for the second time this season. He gained 39 points on Larson in one afternoon, vaulting to sixth in the standings.
The 84-point deficit remains enormous. Briscoe also has firsthand evidence that enormous deficits can disappear quickly.
“We’re definitely still in it,” Briscoe said after Las Vegas. “Larson started 55 [points] back and had a 26-point lead after four [races] and we have five races to go and I’m 84 back, so it’s definitely doable.”
Briscoe probably needs more Sundays like Vegas. At least he just proved he’s capable of producing one.
The Final Five Won’t Look Much Like the Last Five
This is where the championship gets interesting.
Charlotte is next, but Sunday’s race isn’t simply another intermediate. The Chase then heads to Phoenix, Talladega and Martinsville before the championship is decided at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
That’s a wildly different collection of challenges.
Talladega is the obvious wildcard, capable of erasing a healthy points advantage in an instant. Martinsville brings its own brand of short-track traffic and aggression. Phoenix offers a completely different test before Homestead leaves everyone with one final afternoon to settle it.
The variety should matter. So should experience.
Logano and Blaney haven’t matched Larson’s first-half consistency, but Team Penske just placed all three of its cars inside the top 10 at Las Vegas. Bell has been particularly strong in the Next Gen era at Charlotte. Hamlin, meanwhile, is still second in points despite leaving Vegas frustrated by another missed opportunity.
Nobody needs to manufacture urgency anymore. It’s already here.
The Championship Is Larson’s to Lose, but It Isn’t Over
A 40-point lead with five races remaining is significant. It isn’t safe.
One mechanical failure, crash or disastrous afternoon can change the complexion of this Chase immediately. Larson’s own first five races are proof of how quickly points can move.
But the pressure has undeniably shifted.
Five weeks ago, Larson was the hunter. Now 15 other Chase drivers are staring at the No. 5 atop the standings, and every race that passes without somebody cutting into his advantage makes the task more difficult.
The first half of the Chase belonged to Larson.
The next five will determine whether anyone can take it away from him.