Yankees’ Aaron Boone made safe pick for Game 1 starter - but my idea is bolder | Klapisch
· Yahoo Sports
NEW YORK — Aaron Boone hasn’t had the best week of his professional life. See: Aaron Judge Calf Controversy, which is why picking Cam Schlittler to kick off the AL Wild Card Series against Boston made sense on so many levels.
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Choosing the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young Award is second-guess-proof. Even the “Fire Boone” army would have to agree it was the right call. Schlittler should have no problem wiping out the Sox as he’s done repeatedly over the last two seasons (0.74 ERA with 27 strikeouts in four appearances).
In fact, the scouts I’ve talked to are convinced the Yankees will do more than just prevail over Boston, and they will likely sweep the series in two games. The Sox don’t have the firepower to counter the Yankees’ massive advantage in starting pitching.
That’s why Boone came out of the weekend’s deliberations looking like a manager in control. There were no wrong choices, but he made the most reasonable one. Schlittler insulates Boone from the sniping that has dogged him on social media for years.
Boone’s real problem begins this weekend in the AL Division Series. Unlike Boston, the Rays boast a rotation that’s nearly as good as the Yankees’ (3.51 ERA to New York’s 3.30). They’re more athletic and geared to excel at Tropicana Field — their quirky home field with the low-hanging catwalks, the pale roof background that makes tracking pop-ups difficult and the acoustics of an indoor warehouse-like dome.
This matters because the Yankees could face a decisive Game 5 at the Trop, where the Rays have MLB’s best home record.
It’ll be up to Boone to find precisely the right pitching matchup. Playing it safe might not be enough. He’ll need to be creative to counter the only American League team capable of ending the Yankees’ season early.
Here’s what I would have proposed.
Wild Card Series: Max Fried (Game 1), Gerrit Cole (Game 2), Schlittler (Game 3).
If the Yankees sweep Boston, Schlittler wouldn’t need to pitch Game 3. That would line up the Division Series rotation like this:
Schlittler (Game 1), Carlos Rodon (Game 2), Fried (Game 3), Gerrit Cole (Game 4), Schlittler (Game 5).
I realize this is a massive risk. Holding Schlittler out of the Wild Card Series until Game 3 theoretically increases the chances of the Yankees getting swept before their best pitcher even takes the mound. It’s a gamble Boone would never take.
But with that great risk comes the winning Powerball ticket: having a flawless rotation in place for the Division Series.
Still not convinced? I have great faith in Fried’s success against Boston. In his career, he has a 4-1 record with a 1.93 ERA, including 53 strikeouts in seven appearances. I am equally confident Cole could finish off the sweep in Game 2 – just as I would bet on Schlittler in Game 3 if the Series came down to that.
But consider the sweep scenario. The Yankees would be able to face the Rays with their two best pitchers at the moment (Schlittler and Rodon) would appear in three of the five games. Each starter would be at full strength.
Schlittler in Game 1: nine days’ rest, or the equivalent of skipping a start.
Rodon in Game 2: 11 days’ rest, a much-needed break for a pitcher who’s been on the injured list twice this season.
Fried in Game 3: five days’ rest after pitching Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.
Cole in Game 4: five days’ rest after pitching Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.
Schlittler in Game 5: six days’ rest after pitching Game 1 of the Division Series.
Again, I don’t blame Boone for picking Schlittler to face Boston on Tuesday night. But that would push Schlittler back to Game 2 of the Division Series – and would force him to pitch on three days’ rest if the season came down to Game 5 at the Trop.
The showdown with the Rays is how the Yankees’ season will be remembered. I believe an aggressive tweak to the rotation not only gives Boone the best chance of reaching the World Series but also softens the ticket buyers’ hostility.
Boone is unfairly blamed for most of what goes wrong with the Yankees, but I believe he did a credible job of keeping the team afloat despite a massive run of injuries. The list included Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Fried, Cole and Rodon. The Yankees still ended with the American League’s second-best record.
But the haters are immune to Boone’s regular-season success and equally unsympathetic to the injuries. Even a sweep of the Red Sox wouldn’t be enough. Boone needs to get by the Rays, roll straight to the World Series and deliver the franchise’s first championship in 17 years.
Boone’s roadmap has merit. Analytics, after all, highly favors securing the first win of a postseason series. Winning Game 1 of the Wild Card Series changes the entire equation. The Yankees would have roughly a 70%–75% historical probability of advancing.
But what happens next matters more than anything else in 2026. The Yankees need to conquer the Rays – plain and simple.
That’s why I like my roadmap better.
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