Michigan State football game-by-game predictions for 2026 season
· Yahoo Sports
East Lansing — Michigan State could win enough games to earn a bowl bid in Pat Fitzgerald’s first year at the helm. The Spartans could also finish worse than they did last season.
Visit freshyourfeel.org for more information.
Heading into Friday’s opener against Toledo, one thinks Michigan State’s offense might be a little better with a retooled offensive line and a star running back in Cam Edwards. One thinks the defense will benefit from having Jordan Hall and Nikai Martinez running the show, and a crop of adequate starters who are healthy. However, nobody knows until pads start cracking, crowds start roaring and TV networks cram as many ads as they can into mandatory commercial breaks. I think even Fitzgerald is curious to see just what he has on his hands once his guys line up against somebody else.
With a roster full of transfers and a new coaching staff leading the way, what exactly Michigan State has to work with this season is unknown — especially compared to the rest of the Big Ten. And it’s that comparison where things have gotten tricky for the Spartans in four straight losing seasons.
The great challenge for MSU has been to make some noise in conference play, in which it is 9-27 the past four years and went 1-8 last season. It’s a bleak record for a program that once put fear into opponents who walked into Spartan Stadium and proceeded to crawl out. Fitzgerald’s task is to make this program scary again. Frightening to some, that process might take some time — longer than some may be willing to wait.
Where Michigan State benefits this season is its schedule. Five of its opponents are ranked in the bottom half of USA Today’s preseason Big Ten poll. Likewise, using that poll the Spartans tie for the fourth weakest schedule behind Penn State, Illinois and UCLA. That doesn’t consider travel nor the usual attrition of injuries, but it does show that there are a lot of what should be winnable games.
How many will Michigan State actually win? Here’s where I see them.
▶ Sept. 4 vs. Toledo: Toledo has plenty of upset potential with 15 of its players coming over from Mercer with their coach Mike Jacobs, who’s no Jason Candle but does own 94 wins the past 10 years. Call it the Curt Cignetti effect, and it is bolstered by a crop of FBS transfers including 13 Power Four veterans — and former MSU safety Armorion Smith. If Michigan State’s run game can churn yards and its defense plays well, what appears to be a tough test should be a manageable one. A loss here would really put a damper on the momentum Pat Fitzgerald and the Spartans are rolling with. Winner: Michigan State
▶ Sept. 12 vs. Eastern Michigan: Noah Kim will return to Spartan Stadium with the Eagles looking to make an upset, and what the former Spartan starter showed in their Week 0 win over Sacramento State earned rave reviews. Eastern Michigan will be well-coached by Chris Creighton, but Michigan State should still have this one in the bag. It’s more talented and has the advantage of a raucous crowd. Just like Toledo, losing this one would be a downer. A 2-0 start feels nice, but 3-0 starts the past two seasons show how quickly that goes sideways. Winner: Michigan State
▶ Sept. 19 at Notre Dame: Michigan State is punching upward at a Notre Dame team that many expect to be in the College Football Playoff — having its own carveout certainly eases the path. Regardless, Michigan State’s feel-good fall probably takes its first lumps in South Bend. The 60th anniversary of the Game of the Century will see no tie, but how Michigan State stacks up should give a good indication of the real progress Pat Fitzgerald made in an offseason — and how much further he still has to go. Bonus points to Max Bullough if his linebackers play well against his old staff. Winner: Notre Dame
▶ Sept. 26 vs. Nebraska: If a homecoming loss to UCLA last season cost Jonathan Smith his job, it was Michigan State’s loss at Nebraska a week earlier which saw the first knots unravel. Here Fitzgerald’s Spartans find themselves once again in the same weight class as Nebraska. The Huskers probably have the better quarterback in UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea, but I’d give MSU’s run game an edge with Cam Edwards in the conversation. The defense will have to win this game, and perhaps this is the first time we see LeVar Woods’ special teams units really give MSU a big jolt. This is the big swing game for bowl or no bowl. Winner: Michigan State
▶ Oct. 3 at Wisconsin: With possibly three wins and at least a respectable performance against Notre Dame, there’s a shot Michigan State could be ranked entering October. It certainly would be with a win over Wisconsin, which it should get. Luke Fickell is essentially coaching for his job this year. He has a good quarterback in Colton Joseph, who led Old Dominion to about the closest game anyone played against Indiana in last year’s opener. But the problem with Fickell’s Wisconsin teams is their inability to really dominate the trenches, and I think MSU by this point will have at least its answer on the offensive line. Injuries are the big X-factor here. If a couple key players are out for the Spartans, then maybe the road environment of Camp Randall will prove too much. Winning this one would be a good step out of the Big Ten’s basement. Winner: Michigan State
▶ Oct. 10 vs. Illinois: Starting 4-1 would make Michigan State fans ecstatic given the doldrums of the past four seasons, but here’s where things get dicey: Illinois is replacing a whole lot of its roster from transfer decisions. That creates both mystery and ignorance as to what the Illini are working with. Pat Fitzgerald went 11-6 against Illinois when he was coaching its rival Northwestern, but he went 0-2 — both in blowout fashion — once Bret Bielema became the Illini’s head coach. Those two are friends, but I think Fitzgerald leaves this game needing a little bit more from his defensive trenches and his receiving game. Winner: Illinois
▶ Oct. 17 vs. Northwestern: The emotional stakes need no introduction. Pat Fitzgerald led the Wildcats for 17 years and had little desire to leave his alma mater before a hazing scandal led to his firing. Even a wrongful termination settlement can’t give him back that job, and though he has continuously shrugged off probing questions about this game on the schedule, he’s going to be fired up. Meanwhile, Aidan Chiles comes back to Spartan Stadium after losing his starting job and never quite living up to expectations. If Michigan State plays hard for its coach, and if some former teammates give Chiles a hell of a problem, this could be a defining moment in Fitzgerald’s first year. Picking against him here feels foolish. Winner: Michigan State
▶ Oct. 24 at UCLA: New coach Bob Chesney is similarly rebuilding an ailing program out in Westwood. But even at their worst, the Bruins still smacked the Spartans with an interim coach at the helm last year. Nico Iamaleava is a versatile threat who will really test the front seven's discipline, and I’m curious to see what the offense looks like if a few injuries creep in by this point — I like MSU’s starters, but the depth really thins beyond them. Add in west coast travel and this is a recipe for a letdown. Winner: UCLA
▶ Nov. 7 at Michigan: I’ve got Michigan State at 5-3 entering rivalry week. I can also see a world where the Spartans go 2-6 with the wrong combination of injuries and errors. But there’s no question that a win over the Wolverines would be the biggest of the year. Unfortunately for MSU, I just don’t think the roster is there yet to hang against a team with a lot more talent. Fitzgerald is 3-0 in his career against Kyle Whittingham, so maybe that familiarity comes into play. Maybe the rivalry energy flows, especially with a guy like Bullough coaching the defense that so often determines this game. But that’s a lot of maybes for the possibility of a win. A win here would be incredibly cathartic to MSU fans. I do think Fitzgerald will avoid putting his foot in his mouth like his predecessor. That’s not nothing. Winner: Michigan
▶ Nov. 14 vs. Washington: In a conference with Julian Sayin and Dante Moore headlining the quarterback position, Demond Williams Jr. doesn’t often get his flowers. It’s through his hand that Washington may be a sleeper pick to be a Big Ten bruiser. It will be interesting to see how MSU handles a losing streak, whenever it happens, given last year’s eight-game meltdown. But this is a pretty tough stretch of the schedule that I think will challenge Michigan State greatly. Winner: Washington
▶ Nov. 20 vs. Oregon: Friday night lights in the cold of a Michigan winter. Duck season? With the DNR’s blessing, this sets up like a trap game for the Oregon variety. There’s a level of roster talent that Dan Lanning is working with that the Spartans can’t really match yet. Dante Moore gets the win in his home state. Michigan State’s bowl chase comes down to the final game of the season. Winner: Oregon
▶ Nov. 28 vs. Rutgers: Two years ago, MSU needed a win over Rutgers to make a bowl game. The Scarlet Knights rollicked to a pallindromic 41-14 win at Spartan Stadium, Aidan Chiles irked fans with critiques of the crowd size, and MSU entered another offseason empty-handed. This time around, Fitzgerald leads Michigan State to bowl eligibility with a win. Rutgers has some All-Big Ten talent, but I think the Spartans enter this game ready to run through a brick wall, and that’s the difference you get with Fitzgerald at the helm. Winner: Michigan State
BONUS: Pinstripe Bowl vs. Cal
Cal has a dark horse Heisman contender in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, and containing him will be the focus of Michigan State’s preparation. Michigan State plays close, but JKS gets the last laugh with a pair of touchdown drives out of halftime. Still, MSU fans feel good about the team’s trajectory and Fitzgerald continues building the trenches with a good portal class. Winner: Cal
Final record: 6-7, 4-5 Big Ten[email protected]@ConnorEaregood
This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Michigan State football game-by-game predictions for 2026 season