Whether or not the NFC West is the best division in football depends on how much you care about the top of the division versus the division as a whole.
By our projections, the West contains the two best teams in football – your defending champion Seattle Seahawks and your offseason juggernaut Los Angeles Rams. The San Francisco 49ers join them in the top 10, with question marks on their defense dragging them down slightly but able to match the top teams in offensive firepower. You have, arguably, three of the top four or five head coaches in the game today, with Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan setting the bar for offensive innovation and Mike Macdonald’s defensive schemes taking the best they can do and shoving it aside. All three teams boast top-quartile quarterbacks and offensive lines. The NFC West teams, as a whole, are +250 favorites to win the Super Bowl. The one thing potentially keeping one of these teams from winning the division is that they have to beat up on one another; all four teams have projected strengths of schedule of seventh or harder.
The Arizona Cardinals have +10000 odds to win the division, and -1900 to finish dead last, both the worst in the NFL. Sorry about that.
The two Rams-Seahawks games were scheduled for Week 16 and Week 18, with the expectation that they will be the most significant games of the entire regular season. It’s dangerous to just assume that will be the case – the odds of Sam Darnold turning back into a pumpkin or Matthew Stafford’s back turning into that of a normal 38-year-old are less than they seemed at this time last season, but not zero. But still, it’d be quite the stretch to imagine either out of the race entirely by that point, and so we sit and wait with bated breath to see what the NFL’s two juggernauts can do. Other divisions may run deeper, but the cream of the crop plays football out by the Pacific.
Sorry once more, Arizona. But hey, keep reading anyway…
Remember, you can search for the best odds on these, or any other props with our Prop Shop.
Visit esporist.org for more information.
Arizona Cardinals (3.5)
I do not think the Cardinals will be a good football team in 2026. But I also don’t think they’ll be a
terrible team, and a 3.5-win over/under? That should be reserved for some of the worst rosters ever put together. Arizona is regular bad, not historic bad, so this is going to be one of the weirdest optimistic entries I’ve ever had to write in an over/unders column.
No team has ever had a final line of 3.5 wins or worse since the NFL went to 17-game seasons. You have to go back to the 2017 Jets of Todd Bowles and Josh McCown to find a team that people were willing to say wouldn’t even manage to win four paltry games – and they ended up going 5-11. It’s
really difficult to lose 14 games in an NFL season! I don’t care if the Cardinals were facing last year’s Seahawks, the 1989 49ers and the Greatest Show on Turf Rams. I don’t care if you 100% mark them down as going 0-6 in the division with a kind of insane overconfidence, I still wouldn’t rate their odds of going under this line. Only 58 teams in the history of the NFL have lost 14 games in a single season. Was one of them the 2025 Cardinals? Yes, admittedly so. But you have to be unfortunate
and bad to lose that many games in a season, and Arizona certainly was both.
179.8 adjusted games lost to injuries would be a major blow to even a very good team with a very good coach, and Arizona had neither last year. That doesn’t mean that they were secretly contenders or anything, but their offensive line, secondary and running back room were all filled with holes by the end of the year – and, frankly, they were composed mostly of holes to begin with. Their point differential and other associated stats are a little misleading because they scored
so many garbage time points, but even the oft-injured and poorly run Cardinals of last year finished with 5.2 Pythagorian wins – wins they “deserved” based on point differential. And if that metric doesn’t do it for you, their cumulative Post-Game Win Expectancy would suggest 5.1 wins, with both the Packers game and Titans game going the “wrong” way – though I don’t think PGWE has an adjustment for Emari Demercado just dropping the ball outside the end zone rather than scoring. As bad as the Cardinals were last year, they “should” have won more games.
Arizona is unlikely to be as unlucky in 2026 as they were in 2025. And while I significantly doubt Arizona’s long-term goals with Mike LaFleur as head coach, Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator, and a top-10 drafted running back, it’s hard to argue that this is not a better roster than it was a year ago. Jeremiyah Love
is exciting, and while adding him
and Tyler Allgeier
and extending James Conner is putting a hat on a hat on a hat, that’s an intriguing backfield. They still have Trey McBride. I think the receiver corps is credible, if thin, and Jacoby Brissett is a passible quarterback. The defense should be healthier, and there’s enough veterans there to keep the floor from being
too low. To go under this line, you have to sell me on this being a generational disaster, and I can’t get there.
As Mike Tanier put it in the
Almanac, this is a mediocre roster assembled via a terrible process. And while they will get punched around by the best in the division, they get to host the Jets and Raiders. The Commanders come to town. The Saints are a very beatable opponent, even on the road. And that’s before you start looking into credible longshots and Any Given Sunday factors. Under 3.5 wins? C’mon, now. That’s the kind of line you reserve for the
worst franchise in NFL history…
Oh. Well, still, not buying it.
Strongest Position: Is “tight end” by itself enough of a position, without grouping in the receivers? Or can I go “non-wideout skill position players?” Whichever group lets me include Trey McBride is what I’m going for here. The Cardinals have the best non-wideout skill position units in the division, which is a
highly specific superlative, but it’s not like Arizona has all that much going for them. Raise the banner!
Weakest Position: Quarterback. If I were doing quarterback rankings, I’d have Brissett somewhere in the upper 30s, right on the border of who should be starting if you distributed all the quarterbacks in the league evenly. Gardner Minshew II would be down in the low 40s. The Cardinals have two very reasonable backups, and no long-term option or realistic developmental guy at the position. No, I am not qualifying Carson Beck as a realistic developmental guy.
Biggest Question: Is LaFleur an actual reasonable NFL coach, or is he just getting an aura of credibility from his brother and his relationship to the McVay/Shanahan tree? It’s very easy to give him very little credit for the successful offenses he’s coordinated (McVay’s Rams the last three years, Shanahan’s 49ers in the Jimmy Garoppolo days) and point out the failures when he’s been calling the shots (Zach Wilson with the Jets). But surely, he wouldn’t have stuck around so long and been the top assistant to so many good offensive coaches if he had no ideas of his own, right? Right? Maybe?
Verdict: Yes,
over 3.5, but I’ll do you one better. You can get over 5.5 at +270 odds right now. 6-11 is a perfectly normal record for a bad football team, and I think the Cardinals will rise to the heights of “bad,” rather than putrid or terrible or Brownsesque or whatever other adjective you want to use. And +270 is enough of a return that I’m willing to sweat through some blowouts to try to get on the right side of it.
Los Angeles Rams (11.5)
The offseason champions are supposed to be a bad-to-mediocre team trying to spend their way to respectability. It’s not supposed to be one of the favorites assembling a superteam. I call foul on the entire Rams offseason and declare they must forfeit all their games.
Just adding Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie would have been enough to make the Rams the betting favorites this offseason, shoring up their biggest weakness by adding two quality players to it. Then they went ahead and traded for the best defensive player in football in Myles Garrett and, my goodness. And now, you have rumors of Aaron Donald returning from retirement, like this was a Marvel movie desperate to try to stay relevant. Donald isn’t back yet, and even if he returns probably won’t be Hall of Fame-caliber Donald, but even adding 70% of prime Donald would be a major get. The Rams, a team that knew they were in the peak of their championship window, did everything they could to maximize their odds for this season, at the cost of what are likely to be very late first-round draft picks for a couple years, including one in what appears to be a historically weak 2026 draft. Maybe that will come back to bite them in a few seasons, when the Rams’ corps ages out of their rimes and they don’t have the draft capital to replace them? That sounds like a problem for
future Los Angeles.
It’s not a perfect roster. It would be nice to have a third receiving threat that isn’t Jordan Whittington. I think the much-copied Rams three tight end sets are more Sean McVay making the best out of a bad situation rather than the strategic innovation the rest of the league is taking it to be. The secondary is upgraded, for sure, but their safeties still aren’t world beaters, and their linebackers are an easy target for particularly creative playcallers. Their special teams were terrible last year, and while they improved towards the end of the season, this was still the factor that separated them from the Seahawks in our ratings and, ultimately, on the field. They also face the same incredibly tough schedule as the rest of the division, which makes a high over/under a difficult proposition to hit. It’s not just playing the NFC West, it’s being a bit unlucky with having to face, say, Denver and Philadelphia on the road, instead of at home like San Francisco does. And Matthew Stafford’s back remains a ticking time bomb; one bad hit might not derail the entire Rams season as McVay puppets Stetson Bennett IV or Ty Simpson to a solid enough record, but the threat of it is always out there for a 38-year-old who spent last offseason sitting in a
pseudoscience healing pod of some description.
I don’t care. I think the Rams have the best roster in football. The reigning MVP and DPOYs; arguably the best 1-2 punch at wide receiver in the game, a very strong offensive line, a frightening front seven. I think they have the best coach in football when you look at McVay’s overall track record, both as a playcaller and as a general team manager. They are my Super Bowl pick as it stands right now, and I expect they’ll have three matches against Seattle over about a month and a half to try and prove it.
Strongest Position: Has Aaron Donald signed yet? If so, I’ll go ahead and pick the defensive front. If not, well, Stafford’s the reigning MVP, and so it’s quarterback until proven otherwise.
Weakest Position: Tight ends. Look, the Rams used three tight ends a lot down the stretch because they have two quality receivers, and one of them was hurt. You need to put
someone on the field. But it worked because McVay is good at scheming, not because Terrance Ferguson or Colby Parkinson are secretly really good players. It’s the only spot on the roster where I’d say the Rams are clearly the worst in the division, which makes it ironic that they’re the ones most likely to pull out the multi tight-end sets. LA should have considered drafting Makai Lemon or KC Concepcion over Ty Simpson, just so they wouldn’t feel the need to dump their entire tight end room onto the field at one time.
Biggest Question:Is Aaron Donald coming back? I don’t think he would have worked out at the Rams’ facility multiple times this offseason if he wasn’t seriously considering it. And “veteran playing coy so he skips training camp” is well within the realm of possibilities. Still, every day he doesn’t sign makes it less likely that he will at some point. And even if he
does sign up, the question just shifts to “how much does Donald have left?” In his prime, Donald was probably the best interior defensive lineman in the history of the league. What is he in 2026, three years removed from his last game? I don’t think anyone has the answer to that question, even Donald.
Verdict: Well. Are you asking me whether the Rams are more likely than not to win more than 11.5 games, or are you asking if you should bet money on it? Is this a football prediction or gambling advice? As a football prediction, I slightly lean to
over11.5. The schedule, the division and Stafford’s age make going under an entirely reasonable proposition, but if I had to pick on a 50/50 line, I’d take them getting that 12th win more often than not. But it’s
not a 50/50 line. The best odds at time of writing for over 11.5 were -125, and that’s a little too strong of a vig for me – Vegas knows the money is going heavily on the Rams being great, and it’s hard to set this line
too high. With the odds as they are, I’d go
under 11.5 at +105, but only just. I might just stay away from betting on this one entirely.
San Francisco 49ers (9.5)
The “also starring” of the NFC West. So many season previews for this division include some variation on the line of “don’t forget about San Francisco!” or “the 49ers shouldn’t be discounted!” The only thing more common is the substation jokes, as yes, once again a significant chunk of the 49ers’ aging roster is dealing with some sort of ache and/or pain, with Often Injured
Ricky Pearsall (his full legal name at this point in time) officially already out for the year.
I do think the NFC West will send three teams to the playoffs this year, with the 49ers being good enough to claw their way to a wildcard slot. But they’re clearly the minibosses of the division. The Dark Link to Seattle’s Ganondorf; the Goro to Los Angeles’ Shang Tsung– yes, my video game knowledge ends about the time the 49ers won their last Super Bowl, why do you ask? Their likely role in 2026 is the test the Rams and Seahawks must pass to prove they are true top-level contenders, with all four games with San Francisco happening before they play one another. Is it possible that one or both will fail at this hurdle? Absolutely – the 49ers are an extremely tough out when they are at least half strength. There are entirely reasonable worlds where it’s San Francisco who comes out on top of the NFC West gauntlet having eaten all of the Rams’ and Seahawks’ quarters. It just can’t be considered the most likely outcome.
The concerns on offense are mostly about availability, because when everyone’s playing at full speed, it’s one of the best units in the game.
George Kittle looks like he’ll be ready very early in the season, possibly even for the opener. Christian McCaffrey’s hamstring is reportedly “fine,” though we’ve heard that before. Mike Evans is one of the best additions of the offseason; imagining what Kyle Shanahan can do in his first season with a pair of tall receivers like Evans and De’Zhaun Stribling is enticing. Trent Williams was dealt with before the end of August, for once. And there’s still Brock Purdy, the one quarterback Shanahan has had in San Francisco who raises the ceiling of the offense rather than just executes the system. If they have more than 10 offensive snaps together this year, that would be great.
It’s the defense that’s littered with question marks, even if all those questions have
potential answers. Will Raheem Morris’ scheme freshen up a defense that has seemed passive in the final few years under variations of Robert Saleh’s looks? Who provides the pass rush behind Nick Bosa – and will Bosa be healthy, coming back from his ACL tear? Can Dre Greenlaw turn back the clock next to Fred Warner? Will the young secondary take a much-needed step forward? The 49ers rank 22nd in our defensive projections in large part because there are just so many uncertain things dotted all over the lineup. I like that they do seem to have a plan everywhere, but the best laid plans of mice and men and all that. I would like to see them make one (1) tackle on a running play before taking this unit out of the “bad” category, and you can’t have a subpar unit and be a favorite in
this division.
Count out a team with the likes of Bosa, Warner, Kittle and McCaffrey at your own risk. But don’t just assume the 49ers can autopilot their way into the postseason.
Strongest Position: Brock Purdy is a top 10 quarterback, and he’s closer to five than he is to 10. Mac Jones is a more than capable backup, as we saw when he was forced into action last season. With questions about health and depth around the roster, quarterback is the greatest area of strength for San Francisco. Well, other than coaching, of course.
Weakest Position: The defensive front. I like Osa Odighizuwa; he’s a good pickup. But Alfred Collins and C.J. West didn’t show much as rookies, and Vita Vea is not walking through that door, no matter how much 49ers fans hoped. Maybe Gracen Halton turns from preseason guy into something actually meaningful? I’m just tired of seeing running backs dart through the middle of the line with no real resistance.
Biggest Question: Will the old men stay elite for another year or two? The 49ers had the league’s oldest offense last year, with a
snap-weighted age of 28.9. And then they brought in Mike Evans, so, you know, youth movement! By my count, eight of the 49ers 12 offensive starters (including fullback Kyle Juszczyk) are on the wrong side of 30, and at least four have extensive injury histories. They’re all good, when healthy. When healthy. When healthy…
Verdict: I’m taking the
under here, though I’m willing to pay a little extra for the peace of mind of going under 10.5 instead at -150, rather than under 9.5 at +120. 9-8 or 10-7 feels just about right for this team with a tough schedule in a tough division. That’ll get you in the playoffs, and we’ll see what happens from there, but I’m wary of going
too high on a team comprised mainly of glass cannons.
Seattle Seahawks (10.5)
Oh, right, the defending world champions. The fourth-best team in DVOA history (including playoff performance). Those guys are in this division, too. Funny how they haven’t gotten the headlines while the Rams assemble their doomsday device.
Defense is less consistent from year-to-year than offense, and the Seahawks are a defense-led team. So I’m fine with them having lower Super Bowl odds this season than other teams of their historic pedigree. And like I said earlier, the Rams are my pick for the division and the Super Bowl. But that’s because you have to pick
somebody, and the level to which the Seahawks have kind of gotten left in the dust in the minds of the random fan is… not baffling, maybe, but far too oversold.
The Seahawks are fourth in Super Bowl odds, having fallen all the way to +1100 – they’ve dropped even since the
Almanac was released. It’s not just the Rams ahead of them, but the Bills and Ravens, too. A team that has regularly choked in the playoffs and didn’t even win their division last year, and a team that
missed the playoffs entirely and downgraded at head coach in the offseason. No respect, I tells ya,
no respect.
Seattle only lost four players who had at least 498 snaps last season, if you excuse the arbitrary endpoint – Coby Bryant, Boye Mafe, Riq Woolen and Kenneth Walker III. Mafe had already been moved down the lineup by the end of last season, and Woolen wasn’t starting either – the team that beat the Patriots in February returns almost intact. The Seahawks don’t really have to worry about plugging new guys into the lineup, but just in case it comes up, they used their first three draft picks on direct replacements in Jadarian Price, Bud Clark and Julian Neal. The entire offseason has been about just keeping the momentum rolling going forward and defending that title.
Which is probably why they’re not getting the same buzz. They’re not a fun team to talk about this offseason. There are no big questions to answer, no weaknesses to point out, no holes to fill. They weren’t particularly bad at anything last year, so it’s not a question of finding some area for significant improvement. You kind of have to go down to “can Sam Darnold do it again,” and that was the question
last year, and he answered a fairly definitive yes – at some point, it has to stop being surprising. It’s not as sexy of an offseason as adding the defensive player of the year or bringing in a new coach or getting a healthy game-changing player back. It’s just a great team continuing to be great. Yawn, I guess?
Strongest Position: Even with the losses of Bryant and Woolen, I’m still going with the secondary. Nick Emmanwori lined up everywhere, allowing Seattle to sit in nickel or dime all the time and beat whatever personnel opposing offenses try to throw at them – versatility without needing to take your best players out. And you could argue that Emmanwori, as good as he is, is only the third-best player in the secondary, with the newly extended Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love both there, too. Admittedly, Love over Emmanwori is a bit more of a stretch, but not a crazy one – this secondary runs deep.
Weakest Position: They’re not wrong to be at least a little concerned about the loss of Kenneth Walker III, especially with both Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price dealing with injuries. I also don’t really think Price was worth a first-round pick even above and beyond the analytical stance against drafting running backs early. Then again, if there was ever time for a luxury pick, it’s for a defending champion who didn’t lose much.
Biggest Question: How much will the offense change? Klint Kubiak is gone and Brian Fleury is calling plays now for the Seahawks. It’s the same coaching tree with the same philosophy; he made a point of saying that his scheme “looks very similar to the one that just won the Super Bowl”. Still, for a team with few questions, changing out your offensive playcaller is at least worth a little bit of time pondering.
Verdict: Over 10.5, in case that wasn’t clear. The Seahawks and the Rams are neck and neck, and the fact that the Seahawks’ line is a win lower than the Rams’ makes this an easy pick compared to all my hemming and hawing about Los Angeles. Very little reason to think Seattle doesn’t just run it back to another double-digit win season in 2026.
Read full story at source