LILLEY: What did Carney give up to get tentative deal with Trump?

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Canada dodged a tariff bullet at midnight — but Ottawa isn’t saying how it happened. Details of the new deal that spared the country crushing new tariffs are scant Wednesday morning.

What details are emerging come from the American side, which seems happy with the result, while Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government is saying little.

A month ago, U.S. President Donald Trump had threatened new 50% tariffs on $28 billion worth of Canadian goods, hitting everything from hockey sticks to cement, alcohol to honey.

Midnight reprieve

Now, with a tentative new deal in place, Trump announced a three-day pause just after 10 p.m. on Tuesday.

“I have paused the 50% Tariffs against Canada, that were scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three day period,” Trump posted.

Now, officials from both countries have three more days to finalize details — failure to do so means these same tariffs will take effect on Saturday.

According to a social media post from the Office of the United States Trade Representative , the deal appears to be far-reaching.

“The deal will include comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment, and many important provisions that will continue to protect our market and American workers, along with our Canadian partners,” the post said.

Milk, cars and booze

Trump’s rationale for imposing the tariffs came from what he called unfair trading practices imposed by Canada on the United States regarding dairy, autos and alcohol. In announcing the deal and formalizing the pause, Trump cited progress on all three issues.

“According to senior executive branch officials, Canada has expressed a commitment to remove the discriminations or unreasonable and unequal impositions,” Trump wrote in a proclamation posted to the White House website.

The Americans have long complained about aspects of Canada’s supply management system for dairy, in particular how milk and cheese quotas are allotted. When they announced their new tariffs a month ago, they pointed to preferential treatment given to the European Union on dairy compared to American producers.

Canada’s dairy lobby has opposed any changes to the existing rules with the Americans, and the Carney government had pledged to protect the industry. Now the Americans are claiming victory.

On autos, the Americans objected to counter-tariffs the Canadian side placed on American auto imports in retaliation for their own 25% tariffs on Canadian auto exports to the United States. There were reports that the Americans had offered to reduce their tariff on Canadian autos to 15% in exchange for dropping our tariffs.

And on alcohol, the Trump administration demanded an end to bans on American booze imposed by every province except Alberta and Saskatchewan. The problem for Carney is that those booze bans are decisions made by premiers who have pledged not to reverse course unless substantial progress was made for their industries.

Carney has said little about the deal, but did release a short statement shortly before midnight saying his team was working hard for Canadians.

“Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done. As this work is ongoing, the United States has agreed to postpone the implementation of its 50% tariff on a range of Canadian goods,” Carney wrote.

Premiers in the dark

Whether that substantial work has delivered enough to have Ontario’s Doug Ford, British Columbia’s David Eby or Quebec’s Christine Frechette reverse their booze bans is an open question. In the days leading up to the tentative deal, as talks intensified, provinces were kept in the dark about what was being put on the table.

Softwood lumber, Eby’s main issue, has yet to be discussed; Frechette remains resolute on surrendering nothing on dairy; and Ford wants an end to auto tariffs.

Carney will have his work cut out for him convincing skeptical premiers to come along with him on whatever his team has negotiated. He will also need to convince a wary public that the concessions he has offered the Americans come with valuable concessions for Canada in return.

The talks with the Americans have ended for now — time for Mark Carney to start explaining his deal to Canadians.

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