2026 college football betting preview, odds: Which teams are rated higher or lower than last season in the betting market?

· Yahoo Sports

The great Jerry Seinfeld once invaded our cerebral cortex, providing the stunning realization that when it comes to pro sports and the cycling through of players on one's favorite team, we're all just cheering for laundry.

In college sports, it's always been slightly different, with so many carrying a deeper attachment as an alum or having close ties to the community of a school. Given the four-year nature of higher education, the player churn was always part of the deal, but in the NIL-era, that's been cranked up. Players and coaches have redefined the term "commuter school," as so many pass through campus as if it were a turnstile. As a result, in preparation to bet on the coming football season, one of the ways we can mark these changes is through the betting market.

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Last season, you could trace the evolution of Indiana from a team power-rated by the collective betting market as a below-average team (in the 40s out of 100 in THE WINDOW's estimated market rating system) before Curt Cignetti's arrival, to a College Football Playoff team (in the 70s) by the end of 2024, to the 2025 National Champions — finishing last season with a market power rating in the high-90s.

While everyone searches for the "next Indiana," the Hoosiers' success is due to Cignetti's cultural revolution, but also a massive alumni base that he can tap into in Bloomington. Meanwhile, Texas Tech continued a more modest, but similar, trajectory, thanks to a more singular donor funding the Red Raiders' rise to Big 12 prominence. If your school doesn't have any of these things, it's more likely to be a situation where "the more things change, the more they stay the same."

As we enter the 2026 season, while many of the 138 FBS teams are rated close to their usual standard, the NIL carousel has resulted in a change in market perception for a handful of teams — both up the power ratings, and down.

Luckily, we can use the betting market to note these movers, so we can stay ready on shifting opinions — and we don't have to get ready.

Last season: 60

This season: 83

"Usual" is a loose definition here, as LSU is no stranger to national title contention, but the Brian Kelly "era" dropped the Tigers into also-ran territory. They showed up on this list last year, having been rated in mid-60s at the end of 2024. However, they were expected to be a contender, rated in the 80s, before a catastrophic 2025.

Of course, the Lane Kiffin debacle that hijacked much of last season, the giant NIL budget that coaxed Kiffin to Baton Rouge and the general public's desire for the Tigers to keep things interesting for those high-energy night games in Death Valley, has sent LSU's power rating back to where Bayou Bengal supporters think it should be. However, we'll need to see it to believe it.

Last season: 70

This season: 78

"Next year is our year" is a tried-and-true motto for college coaches trying to avoid getting fired. Lincoln Riley couldn't get it done when he brought quarterback Caleb Williams with him from Norman, Oklahoma, to L.A., so now it's time for Part 2 — building it internally.

The market's buying in to a degree, but USC's top-rated recruiting class for 2026 (by 247sports) should make more of an impact in the coming seasons (and will give Riley another mantra), so this bump may be all on the arm of star quarterback Jayden Maiava.

Last season: 62

This season: 74

The Gators missed out on the Kiffin Sweepstakes, but that doesn't mean there's any less hype amidst the start of the Jon Sumrall Era. However, unlike the Tigers' No. 1-ranked transfer class, Florida's group of quasi-free agents ranks outside of the top 25, according to 247sports, after having quickly given up on top prospect D.J. Lagway.

Sumrall should have a long leash, and the schedule is easier than the brutal slate they have signed up for in Gainesville in recent seasons, but there should be situations to fade Florida at this rating.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - JULY 22: Head Coach Jon Sumrall of the Florida Gators speaks at SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at Tampa Marriott Water Street on July 22, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Parker S. Freedman/Getty Images)Parker S. Freedman via Getty Images

Last season: 30

This season: 40

It's not just the good teams that are worth noting a bump in perception, but after a 4-8 season in Zach Kittley's first year at Florida Atlantic, the Owls have two things going for them:

1. The highest returning production percentage in an otherwise tumultuous American Conference (given shakeups at Memphis, USF and Tulane)

2. An under-the-radar transfer recruit from Division-II (Livingstone College) in edge-rusher Kenyon Garner, to help bolster the defense

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That won't necessarily win the conference, but the early-season questions bettors will be asked are:

1. Is that enough to stay within three touchdowns in Week 1 at Florida?

2. Are the Owls interesting home underdogs to Navy in Week 2?

Last season: 32

This season: 46

Liberty is an interesting case study in this category. Basically, since their appearance in the Fiesta Bowl three years ago, the Flames have regularly entered the season rated in mid-40s — a good rating for a Conference USA team, only to end it with a poor one, in the low-30s.

In the deep recesses of the college football landscape, recognizing this type of pattern for a team with the same head coach/QB combo — Jamey Chadwell and Ethan Vasko — is where we can find some value in fading overrated programs.

Last season: 60

This season: 52

The reasons not to like Georgia Tech this season: a non-conference schedule with both Tennessee and Georgia on it, and the hole left by three-year starter Haynes King at quarterback.

However, Fernando Mendoza's little brother, Alberto, takes over. Plus, just because your schedule is hard, doesn't make you bad. In fact, it only creates more opportunity for the Yellow Jackets to be big underdogs, which is a situation that Brent Key's teams have thrived in during his tenure. And he's still around to get the most out of the Ramblin' Wreck.

Last season: 59

This season: 44

Need more than our estimated power rating numbers?

The CyHawk game, usually lined around a field goal in the direction of the home side, carries a lookahead line of -11.5 (DraftKings) and -12.5 (FanDuel) this year — and it's not because of an increase to Iowa's power rating, which tends to hold steady year-to-year.

Matt Campbell's move to Penn State puts Iowa State atop a category of schools whose ratings have taken a drop because it's lost something of a generational head coach. Unlike many of the others further down the list, the Cyclones didn't pillage a traditional Group of 6 team's long-time coach. Instead, ISU scooped up Jimmy Rogers from Washington State, having seen him basically replicate the Cougars' usual rating despite doing so with a ton of new pieces in one year on The Palouse.

That's something Cyclones backers will hope he can do again.

Last season: 58

This season: 44

Tulane's gone from Willie Fritz (moved on to Houston), to Sumrall (Florida) and, in an attempt to maintain some post-Sumrall continuity, has promoted passing game coordinator Will Hall to head coach. The betting market doesn't like that, given Hall went 14-30 in four seasons at the helm at Southern Miss — and there's no legitimate answer at quarterback, either.

While we'd love to hang a "buy" sign on a team rated this far below their standard, Tulane could be on their way back to where they were before things finally clicked for Fritz in his seventh year in New Orleans.

Last season: 35

This season: 24

San Jose State suffers from the worst kind of power rating downgrade — one without a coaching change. The Spartans have gone from finishing 2024 in the mid-40s, to the mid-30s at the end of last season, and now they're tabbed to win just 4.5 games despite having 13 on the schedule (in a rare quirk).

To make matters worse, after they get blown out in Week 0 by USC, the Spartans' slate actually gets pretty soft, with Boise State and San Diego State having each departed the Mountain West. Unfortunately, for bettors, all this means is that the Spartans are going to be a "hold your nose" underdog target. That will likely start with Week 1's visit to Eastern Michigan, as they'll be getting more than a field goal in Kalamazoo.

North Texas (last season: 60, this season: 30)

Toledo (last season: 55, this season: 33)

Marshall (last season: 43, this season: 30)

Southern Miss (last season: 35, this season: 25)

Our fifth spot goes to four teams who make up a virtual "Mad Libs" exercise of the vacated-coach scenario.

North Texas had its best season ever, and lost head coach Eric Morris (and virtually its whole team) to Oklahoma State.

Toledo had its best run of seasons ever, and lost head coach Jason Candle (and virtually its whole team) to UConn.

That looks a lot like Marshall, which, in 2024, had one of its best seasons ever and lost its head coach, Charles Huff (and its whole team) to Southern Miss.

Oh, and speaking of Southern Miss, after seeing its market rating jump from a woeful 17 to 35 under Huff, the Eagles are back down to the mid-20s after Huff skipped town to Memphis.

Of the four, Marshall's adjustment down is the one most likely to be an overreaction, as they started to round into some form under Tony Gibson, and could be worth a look as a big 'dog in their opener at Penn State.

It's understanding off-season shifts in perception like these that provides a good start in preparing to bet the college football season.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

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