Reliance Jio, Airtel, Vi May Raise Mobile Tariffs By 12-15% In India Over Next Three To Four Months
· Free Press Journal
India's three private telecom operators, Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea, could raise mobile tariffs by 12 to 15 percent over the next three to four months, according to a preview report on the telecom and internet sector by Centrum Institutional Research. The brokerage's Q1FY27 sector note points to a combination of market consolidation, sustained 5G investment and a favourable pricing environment as the key drivers behind the anticipated increase, which would mark the first industry-wide hike in about two years.
Why the hike is being anticipated?
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Centrum said the pricing environment has become more favourable with only '3+1 players' in the market and that it expects another 12 to 15 percent tariff hike over the next three to four months. The '3+1' reference is to Jio, Airtel and Vi as the three private operators, alongside state-run BSNL, a market structure that has left the private players with considerably more pricing power than in the hyper-competitive years that followed Jio's 2016 entry into the sector.
The brokerage has also flagged that average revenue per user, a key profitability metric for telecom operators, is expected to rise modestly even before any formal tariff hike is announced.
Centrum expects the three private operators to report a 1 to 1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in ARPU for the June quarter, driven by the migration of subscribers from 2G to 4G and 5G networks, postpaid customer additions and a higher number of days during the quarter. Heavy capital expenditure on 5G rollout across the country over the past two years has added further pressure on operators to improve returns, a factor analysts say is feeding into expectations of another round of price increases. The report also anticipates that Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio will continue gaining subscribers, while Vodafone Idea works on expanding its 5G network.
What the hike could mean for recharge prices?
While none of the three operators has confirmed a hike, industry estimates suggest that if the increase lands around 12 percent, some of the most widely used prepaid plans could see the following shift. A 28-day plan currently priced at Rs. 349 could move to approximately Rs. 389. An 84-day plan currently priced at Rs. 899 could rise to around Rs. 1,007. An annual plan currently priced at Rs. 3,599 could climb to roughly Rs. 4,031. These figures are indicative projections based on a flat percentage increase, and the final revised prices will depend on how each operator chooses to restructure its individual plans, since telcos have in the past used hikes as an opportunity to also rejig data allowances, validity periods and entry-level pricing rather than applying a uniform markup across the board.
India's telecom operators have historically moved in step with one another on pricing, with one operator typically taking the lead and the others following within weeks. The last major round of increases came in mid-2024, when Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel revised tariffs upward, following Vodafone Idea and Bharti's earlier hikes in December 2019 and December 2021 respectively. Since then, ARPU growth across the sector has been comparatively muted, which analysts point to as one of the reasons the industry is now considered due for another correction.