Who will win the World Cup 2026? Favorites, odds and predictions shift after Germany loss

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Brazil survived the 2026 FIFA men's World CupRound of 32 knockout stage to move on to Round of 16 bracket — Germany and the Netherlands did not, as the list of top contenders takes a hard shift in the new power rankings, latest odds and new predictions.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup favorites list changed dramatically after Monday’s Round of 32 games, with Paraguay eliminating Germany on penalties, Morocco knocking out the Netherlands in another shootout and Brazil needing a late goal to escape Japan, 2-1.

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Now the title race turns to Tuesday, when the leading 2026 World Cup contender, France, and Kylian Mbappe, take on Sweden at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford at 5 p.m. ET, while Erling Haaland looks to lead Norway against Ivory Coast and into the next Round of 16. Mexico will also get its first knockout-stage test against Ecuador at home in a primetime match tonight.

Who are the World Cup favorites after Germany’s loss?

Germany’s exit removes one of the tournament’s traditional powers from the bracket and opens the path for other contenders, as did the Netherlands loss from the top tier.

Brazil remains alive after beating Japan 2-1 in extra time, but the result was more survival than statement. Japan scored first before Brazil rallied, with Gabriel Martinelli delivering the stoppage-time winner. They are still one of the major contenders, but Monday’s scare showed how tight the knockout stage has become.

Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Who's favored now - after latest results

For now, the safest answer to “who will win the World Cup?” is less certain than it was a day ago. Germany and the Netherlands are gone, Brazil is breathing, and France has a chance Tuesday to remind everyone why it remains one of the teams to beat. Noting, USA has now entered the conversation.

Top contenders (updated outlook)

  1. France
  2. Argentina
  3. Brazil
  4. Spain
  5. England
  6. Morocco
  7. Mexico
  8. Colombia
  9. Norway
  10. United States

France and Spain remain co-favorites across sportsbooks and predictive models. France’s depth, led by Kylian Mbappé's chase for a World Cup scoring record, Spain's all-star squad with the young phenom Lamine Yamal, and some all-time greats, including Harry Kane for England, Lionel Messi with Argentina and Cristiano Ronlado's chase for a first World Cup win with Portugal.

However, public sentiment in the betting odds shows a slightly different scenario of possible winners.

World Cup 2026 Odds: Latest betting predictions

Across sportsbooks and predictive models, France is begining to pull away, followed by Argentina atop the odds board, followed by Spain and England with Portugal and Brazil still rounding out the top tier.

The Polymarket betting odds for the 2026 World Cup winner is favoring France by the hottest percentage to win with Argentina now also significantly favored over Spain:

  1. France - 29%
  2. Argentina - 19%
  3. Spain - 11%
  4. England - 10%
  5. Brazil - 7%
  6. Portugal - 6%
  7. Morocco - 4%
  8. Colombia - 3%
  9. USA - 3%
  10. Norway - 2%

The Kalshi markets' betting odds for the 2026 World Cup winner are very similar, with France and Argentina gaining the biggest lead and separation at the top tier.

  1. France - 29.1%
  2. Argentina - 21.4%
  3. Spain - 10.7%
  4. England - 9.3%
  5. Brazil - 7.3%
  6. Portugal - 6.1%
  7. Morocco - 3.9%
  8. USA - 3.9%
  9. Mexico - 3%
  10. Colombia - 2.8%

Across prediction models and sportsbooks, France and Argentina now hold the highest probability to win, with Spain and England now in a third-fourth place and Portugal and Brazil still holding in the top tier of contenders.

The key takeaway: France and Argentina are beginning to separate as the favorites, while margins between other top contenders remain narrow — making this still one of the most open World Cups in years. The expanded 48-team format is also playing a role, allowing more teams to advance and increasing the chances of upsets once the knockout rounds begin.

Note: Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers reflect polling and odds as of 9 a.m. Tuesday, June 30, 2026.

World Cup 2026 dark horses - teams to watch now

With early chaos in the group stage, several teams are legit knockout threats as they make unexpected runs, such as:

  • Morocco — may now be the strongest dark-horse story left in the tournament. The Atlas Lions eliminated the Netherlands in a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw and looked like the better side for long stretches of the match.
  • Paraguay — delivered the tournament's biggest upset so far by eliminating Germany on penalties after a 1-1 draw. Goalkeeper Orlando Gill emerged as a national hero in the shootout.
  • Norway — remains one of the most intriguing outsiders because of elite goal scorer Erling Haaland and a favorable section of the bracket.
  • Canada — already own a knockout-stage victory, playing on home soil gives them an advantage, growing confidence and the bracket is opening up around them

FIFA's 2026 World Cup power rankings: All 28 teams left

According to the latest FIFA Men's World Ranking, these are the favorites to win the FIFA men's 2026 World Cup:

  1. Argentina
  2. France
  3. Spain
  4. England
  5. Brazil
  6. Morocco
  7. Portugal
  8. Mexico
  9. Belgium
  10. Colombia
  11. Croatia
  12. United States
  13. Switzerland
  14. Senegal
  15. Austria
  16. Norway
  17. Ecuador
  18. Egypt
  19. Australia
  20. Algeria
  21. Canada
  22. Ivory Coast
  23. Sweden
  24. Paraguay
  25. Congo DR
  26. Bosnia and Herzegovina
  27. Cape Verde
  28. Ghana

World Cup 2026 Schedule: When is the FIFA men's World Cup final

The 2026 FIFA World Cup began with the group stage on June 11 and runs through the final championship game on July 19, featuring 48 teams and the new expanded format:

  • Group stage: June 11–27
  • Round of 32: June 28–July 3
  • Round of 16: July 4–7
  • Quarterfinals: July 9–11
  • Semifinals: July 14–15
  • Final: July 19

It will be the largest World Cup in history, with matches played across North America.

Who has won the most World Cups? All-time winnerst list

Brazil remains the most successful nation in World Cup history, with five titles. Germany and Italy are tied for second with four wins each and defending champion Argentina holds three. The record for most appearances in a World Cup final goes to Germany, making eight final matches. Here's a list of all-time winners:

  • 2022: Argentina
  • 2018: France
  • 2014: Germany
  • 2010: Spain
  • 2006: Italy
  • 2002: Brazil
  • 1998: France
  • 1994: Brazil
  • 1990: West Germany
  • 1986: Argentina
  • 1982: Italy
  • 1978: Argentina
  • 1974: West Germany
  • 1970: Brazil
  • 1966: England
  • 1962: Brazil
  • 1958: Brazil
  • 1954: West Germany
  • 1950: Uruguay
  • 1946: No tournament due to World War II
  • 1942: No tournament due to World War II
  • 1938: Italy
  • 1934: Italy
  • 1930: Uruguay

Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist covering trending and breaking topics across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions for USA Today Network. Reach her at [email protected].

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Who will win the World Cup 2026? Favorites, odds and predictions shift after Germany loss

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