Uniting Splinter Groups Into A Single Entity Is The Only Way Forward
· Free Press Journal
So, finally, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) parliamentary party has formally split, mirroring its legislature party in West Bengal. But this time, it is different. In Kolkata, rebels are calling themselves the real Trinamool Congress, with Mamata Banerjee as their chief adviser, but at the national level, it has merged into a party with no relationship with Mamata Banerjee. Now this group is called the National Citizens Party. So, it is complicated.
So, TMC, as it was known before, has split twice: once at the state level, where it is not officially acknowledging the split but claiming to be the ‘real’ TMC, and again at the national level with a new name. Then there are those with Mamata Banerjee: roughly 20 MLAs, 8 Lok Sabha MPs, and a few Rajya Sabha MPs (deliberately not putting a number, as three MPs have already resigned from the Rajya Sabha and many more may follow). So, as of now, there are three entities.
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TMC Split And Emerging Factions
This is a rare phenomenon in Indian politics. Now nobody knows whether those who split into two groups belong to the same group or whether both will become distinct entities in the future. If they belong to the same group, will they merge later? But one thing is certain in this gala stage of confusion: TMC has been demolished at the BJP's behest. Now the moot question is what kind of relationship these two groups will have with the BJP.
At the national level, there should not be any problem, as this group of 20 MPs has, in effect, declared their support for the BJP, meaning they will join the big tent called the NDA. But what about the Kolkata group?
BJP Strategy And Opposition Concerns
This group claims to be the main opposition party in the West Bengal assembly. They have good numbers, too. But the problem is, if they are in opposition as they claim, then they can’t be seen to be joking around with the BJP and Suvendu Adhikari because if they do so, then very soon they themselves will become a big joke; nobody will take them seriously and they will lose credibility, and that will be the end of their politics.
As the opposition, they can’t be living under the same roof, paying rent to the government; very soon, that opposition space will go to some other entity, which can be the Mamata-led TMC, the Congress, or the Left.
Impact On BJP And National Politics
Now there is another question. How will the BJP benefit? It is a win-win situation for the ruling party. The demolition of the TMC sends a strong signal to the opposition, particularly the INDIA alliance, that if a powerful leader—a three-time chief minister like Mamata Banerjee—can be destroyed like a house of cards, then no party in the country is safe. Therefore, they had better behave, be good boys, not indulge in any mischief, and do as they are told, like Mayawati is doing. And that makes the BJP’s life in Parliament, in both Houses, and in the states easy.
Future Of Regional Parties
But what about the Opposition, specifically the regional parties? For regional parties, life is going to be very tough and scary; they will be constantly living in fear. It is a life-threatening moment, a do-or-die situation, an existential crisis. Being a small party makes them easy prey.
The TMC split has already sent shivers down the spines of Shiv Sena (UBT) and Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. In a panic, Uddhav Thackeray called a meeting of its nine Lok Sabha MPs; only four turned up in person, and the remaining five joined via phone and video. That is not a good sign. Akhilesh says that if the BJP wins this time, it will be the last election.
Call For Opposition Unity
So what should regional parties do? To survive, they have to find a bigger tent so that the 2/3 defection can be avoided. But this is easier said than done. Now there are three ideological groups in opposition. Among them are those who had moved away from the Congress: the TMC of Mamata, the YSR Congress of Jagan Mohan Reddy, and the NCP of Sharad Pawar. All these can rejoin the Congress, help strengthen the Congress, and become a bigger party. That will ensure some security for these leaders and a big role in national politics.
India has been blessed with socialist parties that were led by Ram Manohar Lohia and Jaiprakash Narayan. But tragically, today, instead of fighting others, these parties fight among themselves and end up shamelessly splitting at the drop of a hat. The Janata Dal of 1989 is no more; there are the RJD, the Samajwadi Party (SP), JDU, BJD, LJP, and JDS. Of these, the JDS, JDU, and LJP are with the BJP. But nobody knows for how long. The RJD, the SP and the BJD are directly fighting with the BJP in their respective states, but for how long? BJP can finish them easily. Should all three not try to come under one socialist tent, like the Janata Dal of 1989?
Once a formidable force, today the Left is too weak. They have also splintered into many groups, spread across many states. Why can’t they forget their ideological differences and be one as they were before the CPM was formed in the mid-1960s?
All three ideological tents can coordinate with each other; coordination among three is much better than coordination among 24 parties. Together, all three can form a leadership group to create the ‘Vanguard of the Resistance’. If Rahul Gandhi is convinced that the system is hijacked and that the traditional way of fighting the BJP won’t work and that resistance is the only way forward, then Rahul should take the initiative to create three tents, a coordination committee, and a ‘Vanguard of the Resistance’. Will he? Can he? That is a million-dollar question.
The writer is Co-Founder, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B