Finally some petrol price relief on the cards for SA motorists
· The South African
South Africa’s motorists could be in line for significant fuel price relief in July after early data showed petrol and diesel prices moving into strong over-recovery territory at the start of June.
Visit tr-sport.click for more information.
According to the latest figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), both petrol and diesel are currently tracking sizeable decreases, despite government preparing to reinstate the final portion of temporary fuel levy relief next month.
Glimmer of hope
After four consecutive months of fuel price hikes, the latest data offers motorists a welcome glimmer of hope.
As of Friday, 5 June, the estimated recoveries stood at:
- Petrol 93: over-recovery of R2.68 per litre
- Petrol 95: over-recovery of R2.70 per litre
- Diesel 0.05%: over-recovery of R5.25 per litre
- Diesel 0.005%: over-recovery of R5.42 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: over-recovery of R6.15 per litre
These recoveries suggest that fuel prices are benefiting from softer international oil prices and a relatively stable rand, which have improved the fuel pricing outlook since late May.
The positive momentum follows a shift in global oil market sentiment, driven largely by hopes of a lasting truce between the United States and Iran.
The easing of geopolitical tensions helped stabilise crude oil prices after months of volatility.
Fuel levy
While both petrol and diesel ended May in over-recovery territory, motorists only saw diesel prices decline at the pumps this month.
Petrol price gains were wiped out by the government’s decision to begin phasing out temporary fuel levy relief.
In June, National Treasury reinstated R1.50 per litre to petrol prices and R1.97 per litre to diesel prices as part of the gradual withdrawal of emergency tax relief introduced earlier this year.
The final phase of that reversal is scheduled for July, when a further R1.50 per litre will be added to petrol prices and R1.96 per litre to diesel prices.
Too early to accurately predict
Despite these planned increases, current recoveries are sufficiently strong to absorb the additional levies and still leave room for fuel price cuts if market conditions remain favourable.
Industry analysts have cautioned that it remains too early to accurately predict July’s official fuel price adjustments, as exchange rates and oil prices can fluctuate significantly over the remainder of the month.
However, the strong start to June has raised hopes that South African motorists could finally see meaningful relief at the pumps after months of rising fuel costs.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections for July 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
FUELPRICE CHANGEPetrol 93decrease of 268 centsPetrol 95decrease of 270 centsDiesel 0.05%decrease of 542 centsDiesel 0.005%decrease of 525 centsIlluminating Paraffindecrease of 596 centsIf the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – a decrease of 268 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and a decrease of 270 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 525 and 542 cents per litre decrease.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to drop by 615 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $96.62 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.55/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 30 June.