LILLEY: Doug Ford goes to Washington amid tense trade talks
· Toronto Sun
As Doug Ford heads to Washington for two days of meetings Monday, there are a few nervous people in Ottawa. Officials in Ottawa from the Prime Minister’s Office on down are crossing their fingers and holding their breath that Ford doesn’t do anything to mess up the ongoing trade talks.
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Ontario’s premier is known to be a bull who brings his own China shop at times, and he hasn’t been shy about speaking out against U.S. President Donald Trump.
Last summer, Ford went on CNN with Wolf Blitzer and said of Trump that “He’s probably the most disliked politician in the world in Canada.” In February, Ford was back on CNN with Blitzer saying, “I’ve never seen so many Canadians all cheering on the Democrats.”
Ford’s change in tone changed everything
Ford has been outspoken about Trump’s tariffs from day one, but early on, Republicans in Washington didn’t mind the criticism because it wasn’t personal; it was about the policy.
“He’s a beaut!” one Washington insider told me about Ford last year.
That view began to change when Ford’s attacks on Trump went from the political to the personal . As he lands in Washington on Monday morning, Carney’s office, his cabinet and more than a few provincial premiers are worried about Ford will say and do.
On Monday, Ford will mostly be meeting with business leaders including Ross Perot Jr. chair of the board at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. In a statement to the media, Ford’s office also says he will “host several meetings and roundtables with partners and experts in industries critical to trade between Ontario and the U.S.”
On Tuesday, Ford’s office says he will hold meetings “with a number of members of Congress, the U.S. administration, and lawmakers.”
Progress made, but the situation remains fluid
Right now, the CUSMA negotiations are at a tense point .
On July 1, the Americans could give us six months’ notice that they want to exit the deal. Thankfully, it doesn’t look like they want to do that; neither does it look like they want to rubberstamp a 16-year extension.
That means we are likely to see the deal move into a state of constant nitpicking and renegotiation along with annual reviews for the next 10 years. This scenario, the one the Americans appear to be leaning towards, would produce a great deal of uncertainty for the Canadian economy and could scare away investment.
The good news coming out of Washington is that the Trump administration doesn’t want to fully reopen the CUSMA deal since any major alterations would require congressional approval. There is a very real possibility that the Republicans could lose congress, especially the House of Representatives, after the midterms.
Solution to sectoral tariffs is possible
With the Trump administration not wanting to chance anything, they are looking at a series of side deals that would wrap around CUSMA and could resolve the sectoral tariff issue for steel, aluminum and autos.
On the auto front, the Americans are looking to have 85% of all parts in North American made cars sourced from Canada, Mexico and the United States and that 50% of all parts be American. That’s something Canada’s auto sector can already achieve and a requirement they could easily meet year after year.
On steel and aluminum, the Americans are looking for tariff-rate quotas. This scenario, similar to what we have regarding American dairy imports into Canada, would allow a certain about of Canadian product could ship south and anything above that amount would be subject to significant quotas.
All of these issues are still fluid, and the details are subject to change, especially if a bull gets loose in a China shop.
All eyes on Washington this week.