Who is the favourite to win the Golden Boot at the 2026 World Cup?
· Yahoo Sports
Kylian Mbappé could become the first player in history to win the Golden Boot at back-to-back FIFA World Cup tournaments, according to a supercomputer projection conducted by BettingLounge.
The supercomputer carried out 10,000 tournament simulations, weighing up how far each team is likely to make it at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and taking into account players’ form for both club and country.
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In almost a quarter of simulations, Mbappé emerged as the tournament’s top scorer with a projected xG of 6.85, which is down on the eight that he scored as he guided France to victory in Qatar in 2022. If the Frenchman does win the Golden Boot at this summer’s World Cup, he’d become the first player in history to win the accolade at back-to-back tournaments.
But Harry Kane, who scored 61 goals for Bayern Munich in 2025/26, comes in at a close second and is handed a 17.2% chance of winning the Golden Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The England forward also won the award in 2018 when England reached the third-place playoffs, scoring six goals along the way.
Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo boast an 11.5% and 9.5% chance respectively of taking home the Golden Boot, putting them ahead of some of the world’s strongest firepower – including Norway’s Erling Haaland, who is expected to find the back of the net 4.45 times throughout the tournament.
With the bookies widely tipping Spain as the favourites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, it’s perhaps no surprise that Lamine Yamal rounds out the top five with an 8% chance of being crowned as the Golden Boot winner. The youngster will celebrate his 20th birthday in the week building up to the final on July 19 at the New York New Jersey Stadium.
England’s Bukayo Saka sits just outside of the top ten after winning the Premier League with Arsenal. The supercomputer expects the 24-year-old to register an xG of 2.95 at the tournament, which would leave him with a 1.5% outside chance of winning the Golden Boot.