UFC Seattle’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Adesanya vs. Pyfer
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UFC Seattle is live this weekend (Sat., March. 28, 2026) at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA. and streaming on Paramount+. The main event for this latest UFC offering includes a former UFC champion who is either on the comeback trail or the retirement tour. We’ll see on Saturday.
Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer will cap of this event this weekend. That Middleweight clash sees Adesanya looking to keep his place near the top of the rankings and prevent Pyfer from leap-frogging over him into title relevance.
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The co-main event is Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber 2, if you know what happened in the first fight – without looking it up – I will buy you a coke.
The main card also has Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price, in a retirement fight for Chiesa, Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas, Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Yousri Belgaroui and Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson.
The pick of the “Prelims” fights include Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev and Navao Stirling vs. Bruno Lopes.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC Seattle Main Card Money Line Odds
Israel Adesanya (-135) vs. Joe Pyfer (+114)The former UFC Middleweight champion Adesanya is on a three fight losing streak right now. This is the first time we are seeing him since he was TKO’d by Nassourdine Imavov over a year ago (see it here). Before that, he fought in August 2024, losing — by submission — to Dricus du Plessis (see that here). The DDP fight was an unsuccessful attempt by Adesanya to wrest back the belt he lost to Sean Strickland in September 2023.
This run of poor form started after he KO’d Alex Perreira in their rematch to earn back the Middleweight strap.
Pyfer’s last few years have been far less dramatic than all that. He came to UFC off Contender Series in 2022 and won against Gerald Meershaert and Abdul Razak Alhassan, as a heavy favorite. He then had a reality check in the form of a unanimous decision loss to Jack Hermansson in 2024. Since then he starched Marc-Andre Barriault (see it here), took a decision over Kelvin Gastelum (in a make-up fight after tummy troubles cancelled their bout in Mexico), and submitted Abus Magomedov (see it here).
Hoenstly, I’m a little surprised Pyfer has plus odds in this match-up. And I say this as someone who does not find Pyfer appealing, as a fighter or a person, at all. I think the biggest thing going in Pyfer’s favor in this fight is Adesanya being 36 (turning 37 in July).
Adesanya has really slowed down in the last few years and he looked like a shell of himself against Imavov, someone whose only other UFC finishes are an early stoppage against Jared Cannonier and legit wins over Edmen Shahbazyan and Ian Heinisch.
It felt like he just didn’t see the punches coming from Imavov in that fight. It might be a sign that his long MMA career, paired with his long kickboxing career, has finally caught up to him.
I don’t like that Pyfer gets to capitalize on that, but I think he will.
Pyfer isn’t a top contender in this division and I don’t think he ever will be. But he’s young, strong and fast (oh, and he can wrestle, too). And it just feels like this is where the young lion will take out the old one. We’ve seen older fighters buck these trends in the past, sometimes in the Middleweight division. Had Adesanya had a little more success going into this fight, I’d be interested in testing that theory with him.
As it stands, though. I’ve gotta hold my nose and go with Pyfer — especially with those odds.
Best bet: Joe Pyfer moneyline (+114)
Alexa Grasso (+150) vs. Maycee Barber (-180)This is one of those rematches that no one asked for. Well, maybe Barber was interested, since she lost to Grasso in their first contest (by decision, back in 2021).
Barber has won seven straight fights since then. It’s not been smooth sailing for here, though. She famously fell out of her fight with Erin Blanchfield about 15 minutes before the curtain call. She also withdrew from a main event fight with Rose Namajunas in 2024. She fought most recently in December, where she dominated Karine Silva for a unanimous decision.
Grasso needed just two wins after her Barber victory to earn a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko. She shocked the world in that fight, scoring a rear naked choke on the women whose accomplishments are inferior only to Amanda Nunes’. Grasso would have a trilogy of fights with Shevchenko culminating in her getting totally outclassed in Sphere in 2024. Most recently, in May last year, she was decisioned by rising prospect Natalia Silva.
Grasso won the first fight with her activity, winning the first rounds by out-landing Barber and sucking up control/pressure time against the fence. Barber came back in the third, landing two takedowns and doing some decent damage in the clinch.
I’m not sure how much these two have developed since then. I don’t think a lot. On current form, though, Barber has looked the better fighter, albeit against lesser opposition. And Grasso’s takedown defense has looked pretty leaky recently. Her career clip is 54 percent. A big part of that is the 16 takedowns she’s coughed up to Shevchenko in their three fights.
I think Barber might still be able to get those takedowns, though, perhaps at a higher rate than she did in the first fight. Grasso is not old at 32, but she is past her prime. Barber is 27 and in her prime right now.
Best bet: Maycee Barber moneyline (-180)
Michael Chiesa (-575) vs. Niko Price (+425)UFC have been responsibly booking their aging booth analyst over recent years. He’s won his last three over Court McGee, Max Griffin and Tony Ferguson (by submission — see it here). Injuries spoiled what was a promising career for Chiesa, who won TUF back when the show was worth paying attention to. Before the injuries he scored wins over Carlos Condit, Rafael dos Anjos, Beneil Dariush and Jim Miller.
This is Chiesa’s retirement fight, in his hometown. What could go wrong?
He was supposed to fight Carlson Harris at this event, but Harris pulled out to be replaced by Niko Price. Price comes in just a month and a half after he was stopped with a standing TKO by Nikolay Veretennikov (see it here). Surely, UFC has someone who could fight who isn’t a few days removed from a commission enforced cool down period?
I hate that Price, who is 2-7 since 2020, is taking a short notice fight, given how terrible he looked in February and how many shots he took. Now, Chiesa’s not exactly going to put a beating on him on the feet, but even so… what’s the point of this match-up?
My assumption for this fight is that there will be a lot of grappling and Chiesa is going to be able to control where the fight takes place. Price has a pretty terrible 50 percent takedown defense. I don’t think Chiesa is that much of a mismatch here that we’re going to see him slice through Price’s guard and submit him immediately. I do think he wins pretty comfortable, by decision or late submission.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-166)
Julian Erosa (+260) vs. Lerryan Douglas (-325)Erosa last fought in May, 2025 losing a decision to the streaking Melquizael Costa. He did earn a Fight of the Night bonus, though. That snapped a three fight winning streak for Erosa. In that run he TKO’d Darren Elkins (see it here) and submitted Christian Rodriguez and Ricardo Ramos. He was the underdog for those submission wins.
Douglas will be making his proper debut here. He passed the audition on Contender Series with a 36-second KO over Cam Teague. The 30 year-old is an LFA vet, where he was recently the Featherweight champion.
Erosa is a Washington guy, so I’m a little confused by this booking. Chiesa got a couple of lay-ups and Chase Hooper, Ricky Simon and Terrance McKinney have all been giving winnable fights. Erosa, though, who might not be long for the sport, has been handed a live grenade.
Douglas is a wild, but very powerful, striker. And we’ve seen Erosa wilt under pressure in the past (seven of his 12 losses are by T/KO). Erosa also turns 37 in a few months.
Erosa is a crafty guy who is capable of upsetting the odds and finding creative ways to win. But I don’t think he’s going to have much fun on Saturday, at all.
If I had the props available, I would go with Douglas by TKO, KO or DQ. The round total is 1.5. Four of Erosa’s last five KO losses were in the first round (and most his stoppage wins are in the first round, too). I’ll take the under.
Best bet: Under 1.5 (-145)
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This is a great match-up. And it’s also a sign that UFC might be over giving Abdul-Malik easy fights.
Abdul-Malik won his last fight, over Antonio Trocoli, as a -1400 favorite. Before that he had a draw with Cody Brundage, which ended early due to a clash of heads, as a -900 favorite. And before that he beat Nick Klein as a -1350 favorite (despite getting dropped).
He’s got the longest odds of his career here and I can see why.
Belgaroui, a former GLORY kickboxer and current teammate of Alex Pereira, landed in UFC last year. As a +240 underdog he took apart former LFA champ Azamt Bekoev to earn a third round TKO (see it here). Belgaroui’s striking looked great in that bout, as you’d expect from a high level kickboxer. He’s also enormous. He’s 6’6” with a 79 inch reach.
Abdul-Malik actually has a one inch reach advantage on him, though.
I think this is a tough match-up for Abdul-Malik and it might generate a very fun fight. I think he’s going to take it, though, on his athleticism and wrestling advantage. Belgaroui lost to Marco Tulio on Contender Series due in part to takedowns. Belgaroui is a great striker, but he’s not very seasoned when it comes to takedown defense — which is pretty common with these GLORY transplants (see Jhonata Diniz and Cesar Almeida). These GLORY guys have also been terrible at getting back up once they have been taken down.
If you can’t get up from under Abdul-Malik, you’re going to get put to sleep. He has some of the nastiest ground and pound since Tito Ortiz.
Best bet: Mansur Abdul-Malik moneyline (-130)
Terrance McKinney (-170) vs. Kyle Nelson (+142)The round total for this fight is 1.5 and the over is +210. That should tell you everything you need to know about it. The bookies are expecting a quick finish. And why wouldn’t you with McKinney involved?
T.Wrecks, a 25 fight veteran, has been out of the first round only three times in his career, but never gone the distance. His two times getting out of the first, in UFC action, all ended up in finishes that would have still cashed an under 1.5 round bet.
He’s not been winning all those fights, though. He lost his last fight by first round submission to Chris Duncan (see that here). His two fights before that; he won by first round submission. In 2024 he lost to Esteban Ribovics by head kick KO after just 37 seconds. He’s had ten fights end in under a minute, including his UFC debut over Matt Frevola in just seven seconds (see it here). That was his second ever fight to end in seven seconds, by the way.
Nelson just beat Frevola, by decision. He should have won by TKO, but that’s another story. That was his Lightweight debut. Before that he was brutalized by Steve Garcia. Before the Garcia loss he had three wins in a row, including a TKO over Bill Algeo.
I think the over is the play here, folks. Nelson looked good at Lightweight and +210 is just too hard to turn down. If McKinney makes me lose that, at least it will be fun watching it happen
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+210)
UFC Seattle ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Ignacio Bahamondes (-290) vs. Tofiq Musayev (+235)This could be a very exciting fight, with both these guys throwing power and volume.
Bahamondes is coming off a disappointing performance, though. Where he was decisioned by Rafael Fiziev, in a fight that was supposed to carve his path to the top fifteen. He’d earned that match-up with highlight reel finishes over Jalin Turner, Manuel Torres and Christos Giagos. The Torres’ TKO was especially notable, coming in the Sphere event in 2024 (see it here).
Musayev is also coming off a disappointing performance. He was signed by UFC just so he could fight in his hometown of Baku. Unfortunately for him, and the crowd, he was easily beaten by Myktybek Orolbai via a kimura (see it here). Now, Orolbai might be something special, so there’s not too much shame in that.
However, Musayev is now looking like someone who was great in RIZIN, but perhaps can’t bring the highlight reel KOs over with him to the Octagon, where he’s fighting much tougher opposition.
He’s 36 now and Bahamondes is the best fighter he’s ever fought, by quite some distance. The only person who is comparable is Roberto Satoshi, who submitted Musayev in the first round.
Bahamondes is almost ten years younger and he’s a lot bigger. He’s a massive Lightweight at 6’3” with 75 inches of reach. Musayev will want a fire fight with Bahamondes (since his ground game isn’t up to snuff), but I think he might regret that.
I think Bahamondes finishes him rather early.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+135)
Chase Hooper (-278) vs. Lance Gibson Jr. (+235)Hooper’s impressive run was undone by Alexander Hernandez in August. The veteran sparked Hooper with a right hook and then pounded him out on the ground (see that here). Hooper had been on a three fight winning streak before that. However, two of those wins were due to him somehow sneaking into the senior division to fight Clay Guida and Jim Miller.
Gibson Jr. debuted for UFC in December and lost a split decision to King Green, in a truly awful fight. Gibson was totally befuddled by a lot of what Green was doing out there. Though, Green has done that to many fighters better than Gibson in his career.
Gibson was 5-1 in Bellator prior to joining UFC. He never fought anyone you would have heard of over there, though. His place in that company might have been more due to who his stepmother is (ex champ Julia Budd) than anything else.
Hooper should have the grappling advantage and he had been displaying good steps forwards with his striking until Hernandez took him out. He’s probably going to win this. I’m looking at the round total, though, which is 1.5. I think there’s a chance Hooper’s grappling (along with his size advantage) is capable of getting Gibson down early and scoring a quick tapout.
Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+145)
Marcin Tybura (+110) vs. Tyrell Fortune (-130)Tybura was lit up in his last fight, against Ante Delija, for a first round TKO loss (see it here). Before that he took a decision over Mick Parkin and beat the brakes off Jhonata Diniz (see that here). He’s been one of the more active Heavyweights in UFC, with two fights in 2025 and three in 2024.
This is Fortune’s UFC debut. He was a longtime Bellator Heavyweight, going 13-2 with that promotion. His notable wins there were over Sergey Bilostenniy, Matt Mirtione and Jack May. Recently he’s been in the lower leagues, where he scored a 45 second KO over 52-year-old Tony Lopez, which should have thrown somebody in jail.
Tybura has had lots of fun Heavyweight fights, for better or worse. He’s rarely in those big boy bouts that are like watching paint dry.
It’s hard to tell if Fortune’s power will translate over to UFC. A lot of his career finishes are over guys who wouldn’t even be alternates on the The Ultimate Fighter. Even so, he’s a Heavyweight who might belong in the “these guys get finishes or get finished” pile in UFC and not in the “these guys plod around and don’t do anything for 15 minutes” pile.
The round total is 1.5. I’ll go under, thinking either Fortune comes out and puts away Tybura on the feet quickly or Tybura immediately takes him down and finishes him on the mat.
Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-140)
Casey O’Neill (+105) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (-125)O’Neill hasn’t fought since August, 2024. That’s when she took a decision over Luana Santos in Australia and then hit the Raygun celebration (remember when that was a thing?). Before that she lost, by armbar, to Ariane Lipski da Silva (see it here). She’s 5-2 in UFC, but hasn’t been active enough to build momentum.
Fernandes is 3-2 in UFC. Her first two fights were decision losses to Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bleda. She’s won three since then, though, with a split decision over Carli Judice (a Fight of the Night), a submission over Wang Cong (a Performance of the Night — as a +625 favorite) and decision over Julija Stoliarenko. That Stoliarenko fight was in August.
This is going to be mostly a kickboxing match, probably. O’Neill is the more likely one to try and mix in grappling, but she prefers to stand and pepper away with strikes.
O’Neill lands a crazy amount of volume. She’s actually third in the entire UFC for sig. strikes landed per minute with 7.89. Esteban Ribovics and Joshua Van are the only fighters, in the whole company, who land more than that. Of course, O’Neill isn’t bringing much power behind those shots.
In her last fight she landed 83 in three rounds. In her previous two fights, that went the distance, she landed 137 and 229.
Fernandes has lost the significant strike counting game in all but her debut fight (which she lost to Jasudavicius). In her last three wins she has landed fewer than her opponents. In her split decision over Judice she landed 119 to Judices’s 169.
Fernandes winning, despite losing that striking battle, might be because she looks a lot more active and effective than she actually is. She moves forwards and works with a lot of confidence and I think that tricks judges sometimes.
If I had the prop available right now, I would put “ends by split decision” as my best best. As it is, I’ll just go with O’Neill on the moneyline, expecting her to land way more than Fernandes to the point she gets at least two of the three judges on her side.
Best bet: Casey O’Neill moneyline (+105)
Navajo Stirling (-600) vs. Bruno Lopes (+440)Stirling travels to Seattle with his teammate Adesanya. This is the third UFC assignment for the 8-0 fighter since he came off Contender Series. He’s won pretty dull, yet effective, decisions, thus far, over Tuco Tokkos, Ivan Erslan and Rodolfo Bellato.
Lopes was cleaned out by Dustin Jacoby in under two minutes in his last fight (see it here). That was last May. Before that he beat Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. He has the dubious distinction of losing by TKO to Brendson Ribeiro on Contender Series in 2023. Ribeiro has since shown himself to be one of the worst fighters the UFC has ever signed.
Stirling is one of only two big favorites on this card. He should be fine against Lopes. Though, given what we’ve seen from him so far, I’m not going to get excited about him or have an expectation of a big finish.
Lopes likes to grind against the cage and work for takedowns. Stirling just saw that kind of offense from Bellato and he was able to stay up for most the fight and reverse the positions. He’s big, strong and very long (those long arms really help him exert pressure from his underhooks).
Stirling was knocking guys out for fun in his early career, but it doesn’t look like he has devastating striking at the UFC level. I’m pretty confident this goes over the listed 1.5 rounds.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+114)
Ricky Simon (-155) vs. Adrian Yanez (+130)Simon lost to Raoni Barcelos in November. Barcelos was able to box Simon up and avoid his takedowns. Before that Simon mopped the canvas with Cameron Smotherman and before that he starched the previously undefeated Javid Basharat (see that here). Simon, who fights out of Vancouver, Washington, is now 10-6 in UFC.
The last time we saw Yanez was in December, 2024. That’s when he lost a split decision to Daniel Marcos. That fight was scored a little closer than perhaps it needed to be. Before that he TKO’d Vinicius Salvador. Before that win he lost by leg kick TKO to Jonathan Martinez (see it here). It feels like a long time ago when Yanez looked like one of the new up and comers at Bantamweight, back when he won five fights in a row, four by stoppage.
Yanez’s inactivity and Simon’s durability and defense have me going with the favorite in this one. Simon has only been stopped twice in his career and I would argue that he was the victim of early stoppages in both of those. His shock loss to Urijah Faber was egregiously early. His loss to Song Yadong wasn’t that bad, but I’ve seen plenty of fights where fighters were allowed to hang in there under that situation.
If Yanez can’t put Simon away on the feet, then he’s going to need to piece together a display for the judges. And I think Simon’s takedowns and pressure are going to make that an uphill battle for him. Simon lands 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 41 percent accuracy. I think he’ll be good enough to impose his game on Yanez and ride out a decision, albeit not a super comfortable one.
Best bet: Ricky Simon moneyline (-155)
Alexia Thainara (-700) vs. Bruna Brasil (+500)Thainara has been a lot of fun since she came off Contender Series in 2024. She made her proper debut last year, submitting Molly McCann in the first round (in McCann’s retirement fight in London) and then celebrated like she’d won the title (see it here). She followed that up with a dominant win over Loma Lookboonmee.
Brasil has looked dreadful in her last two fights; uninspiring unanimous decision defeats to Ketlen Souza and Wang Cong. Before that she looked like a fighter transformed when upsetting McCann (in Manchester). She’s 3-4 in UFC at this point.
Thainara is the biggest favorite on the whole card. I have zero reasons to dispute that. I’ll take the over in this fight, since I think Thainara will dominate, but that Brasil’s experience and decent enough grappling will keep her from getting submitted.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-195)
UFC Seattle Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …
Joe Pyfer to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+850)Pyfer stunned Marc-Andre Barriault with the same punch that Nassourdine Imvav used to drop Adesanya; the overhand right. I’m not looking forward to it, but I think this ends quickly on Saturday night.
Three-bet parlay: Maycee Barber, Yousri Belgaroui and Ricky Simon (+406)With how many close fights there are on this card, there’s a lot of appealing parlays. Here are three moderate favorites I like all paired together. I wouldn’t usually do a three leg parlay, but I’m doing it here to satisfy this feature. In reality, I’ll likely pick two out of the three (Barber and Belgaroui, probably) for a safer/smaller bet.
Julian Erosa to win by submission (+650)File this under the “stranger things have happened category”. I think Lerryan Douglas is most likely going to steamroll through Erosa. But Erosa has defied the odds before. He’s at the tail end of his career and he’s in his home state. Maybe he gets rocked and pulls off a miracle submission off his back. Douglas was stopped by Chepe Mariscal on the regional scene with a triangle.
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