Alabama or Hofstra? How to pick 4 vs. 13 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket

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Alabama or Hofstra? How to pick 4 vs. 13 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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In recent years, No. 13 seeds have been able to challenge No. 4 seeds in the NCAA tournament. While no 13 seed won a game in 2025, there have been seven 4 vs. 13 upsets since 2018, showing that favorites can't expect easy victories.

This year, Alabama is a top-four seed for the fifth time in the last six NCAA tournaments, and the Crimson Tide made it to the second weekend in each of the previous five. However, Nate Oats' team can't overlook this year's first-round opponent, Hofstra.

Thanks to head coach Speedy Claxton, Hofstra is hungry to make noise in March as a defensive stalwart. As a result, the Pride will immediately be tested against one of the best offenses in the country.

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Alabama vs. Hofstra odds

Alabama will enter the contest as a double-digit favorite according to DraftKings. Meanwhile, Speedy Claxton's Hofstra squad will look to keep things close in a game against its fourth high-major opponent of the season. The Pride lost to UCF in the season opener and defeated both Syracuse and Pitt in December.

  • Odds: Alabama -13.5
  • Date: March 20, 2026
  • Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
  • TV: TruTV
  • Arena: Benchmark International Arena, in Tampa, Florida

STREAM: Watch Alabama vs. Hofstra with DIRECTV

Alabama (23-9, 13-5 in SEC)

Alabama received a Hail Mary when Labaron Philon backed out of the NBA Draft at the last minute last May, and the story of the Crimson Tide would likely be much different if not for that decision. Philon turned in a stellar season, averaging 21.7 points per game and shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. He is one of the main reasons Alabama has the nation’s top offense in terms of points scored.

Nate Oats’ teams are always going to score at a high clip. They play fast and shoot an enormous amount of 3s regardless of the personnel. Alabama is loaded with capable shooters, even if Aden Holloway is the only other one who could be considered elite, and it will again be true in the NCAA Tournament that this team will live and die by the 3-pointer.

Defense and the lack of a true paint presence have held Alabama back from being in the conversation with the nation’s top contenders. The Crimson Tide were desperate to bring back a now-ineligible Charles Bediako because Bucknell transfer Noah Williamson didn’t pan out, leaving Oats’ team thin in the frontcourt. Sophomore Aiden Sherrell is still an effective shot-blocker while Taylor Bol Bowen brings some more size near the rim, but teams will try to attack Alabama in the paint, and there might not be a quick fix offensively when the 3s aren’t falling.

Alabama gives up more points per game than all but nine teams in the nation. Much of that is owed to pace. The Tide play fast, so their games naturally include extra possessions for themselves and their opponent. Still, this is a defense that can turn games into shootouts. Alabama doesn’t force many turnovers, and Oats’ squad is middle-of-the-pack in the SEC in opponent 3-point percentage. Alabama ranks 66th in KenPom defensive efficiency, which falls outside the range of a typical Final Four team.

Alabama is comfortable getting into shootouts. The Crimson Tide have the offense to win shootouts. Winning four, five or six times that way is very difficult, but the talent and depth on this Alabama roster would make anything less than a trip to the Sweet 16 a major disappointment. -Dan Treacy

  • NET ranking: 17th
  • KenPom ranking: 16th
  • Quad 1 record: 7-7
  • Quad 2 record: 9-2
  • Quad 3 record: 5-0
  • Quad 4 record: 2-0
  • Offensive efficiency ranking: 3rd
  • Defensive efficiency ranking: 66th

Key players

Labaron Philon, G, So. (6-4, 177): 21.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.7 apg

Aden Holloway, G, Jr. (6-1, 178): 16.8 ppg, 3.8 apg, 43.8% 3-pt

Latrell Wrightsell Jr., G, Sr. (6-3, 189): 12.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 35.7% 3-pt

Aiden Sherrell, F, So. (6-10, 240): 11.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.3 bpg

Amari Allen, F, Fr. (6-7, 205): 11.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.1 apg

SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)

Hofstra (24-10, 12-6 in CAA)

Hofstra got its redemption for 2020, when it finally punched its ticket back to the NCAA Tournament only for the tournament to be cancelled. Nothing will keep Speedy Claxton’s Pride out of the big dance this time.

Hofstra wasn’t the top seed in the CAA Tournament, but the Pride had an excellent season outside of a five-game losing streak in January. Since it ended, this team is 11-1 with six double-digit wins. 

Cruz Davis leads the way offensively for Hofstra with 20.2 points per game. The former St. John’s and Iona guard is a 40 percent 3-point shooter, while freshman Preston Edmead is a 3-point specialist for this team averaging 15.9 points per game. Hofstra needs those two to hit their shots, as the offense relies heavily on the pair.

Defense is where Hofstra excels. The Pride are holding opponents to just 66.1 points per game, and what their big men lack offensively they thrive on defensively. Opponents are shooting just 43.5 percent on 2-point shots, the fourth-best mark in the country for Hofstra. Davis and Edmead are small, but the rest of Claxton’s rotation is mostly loaded with size and can hang with the physicality of a high-level team. 

Hofstra’s non-conference results should tell you that a competitive opening round game, at the very least, is possible. The Pride beat Syracuse and Pitt on the road and took UCF down to the wire in a four-point loss. Regardless of the years Syracuse or Pitt had, competing with power-conference talent level in a road environment says something about a team from the CAA. -Dan Treacy

  • NET ranking: 88th
  • KenPom ranking: 88th
  • Quad 1 record: 0-1
  • Quad 2 record: 2-2
  • Quad 3 record: 10-4
  • Quad 4 record: 10-3
  • Offensive efficiency ranking: 89th
  • Defensive efficiency ranking: 96th

Key players

Cruz Davis, G, Sr. (6-3, 170): 20.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 39.9% 3-pt

Preston Edmead, G, Fr. (6-1, 170): 15.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.4 apg

German Plotnikov, G, Sr. (6-6, 197): 9.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 0.9 apg

Silas Sunday, C, Sr. (7-0, 290): 5.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.1 bpg

James Patterson, G, Sr. (6-7, 200): 9.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 0.4 apg

MORE UPSET PICKS:10 seeds | 11 seeds | 12 seeds | 13 seeds

Alabama vs. Hofstra prediction

Alabama has become known for its offense under Nate Oats, and that is no different this year. However, the defense this year has been middle of the pack, so the Crimson Tide will look to win shootouts on it's way to a deep playoff run.

Alabama's first test will be a tough defensive team in Hofstra, as the Pride are big and physical on that side of the ball. This is a game of two very different styles, with Alabama looking to score big while Hofstra wants a slower game.

Expect the Pride to give the Crimson Tide a scare, but in order to win, Cruz Davis is going to need to be at his best. If that doesn't happen, Hofstra may not have enough offense to compete.

The pick here is Alabama, who should be able to move on to the next round thanks to its prolific offense.

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History of 4 vs. 13 upsets in NCAA tournament

Here's a look at the recent No. 4 vs. No. 13 upsets in March.

YearResult2024Yale 78, Auburn 762023Furman 68, Virginia 672021Ohio 62, Virginia 582021North Texas 78, Purdue 69 (OT)2019UC Irvine 70, Kansas State 642018Marshall 81, Wichita State 752018Buffalo 89, Arizona 692016Hawaii 77, California 662013La Salle 63, Kansas State 612012Ohio 65, Michigan 602011Morehead State 62, Louisville 612010Murray State 66, Vanderbilt 652009Cleveland State 84, Wake Forest 69

Dan Treacy contributed to this article

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