Brutal Texas primary night points to trouble ahead for House incumbents
· Axios
One House Republican lost his seat outright in Texas' primary elections Tuesday night, and four other House members will face grueling, 12-week runoff campaigns.
Why it matters: While short of a full-on wipeout, it's not the kind of result that instills confidence in lawmakers who are trying to withstand the anti-incumbency wave roiling both parties right now.
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- A staggering 30 House Democrats are facing at least one primary challenger who has raised $100,000 or more. A dozen of them have been out-raised by their rivals, as Axios reported on Tuesday.
- There is less of a concerted effort to unseat incumbent Republicans, but mid-cycle redistricting and anti-endorsements from President Trump are keeping things interesting.
Zoom in: Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), a longtime target of the right, was defeated in Texas' 2nd district by Texas state Rep. Steve Toth who criticized him as insufficiently conservative.
- Texas' 18th: Reps. Al Green (D-Texas), 78, and Christian Menefee (D-Texas), 37, are set for a runoff after being forced to fight for one Houston-based seat by Texas Republicans' mid-decade redistricting.
- Texas' 23rd: Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) will go to a runoff with right-wing gun influencer and past opponent Brandon Herrera. Gonzales faces a House Ethics probe over an alleged affair with a staffer who died by suicide.
- Texas' 33rd: Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) is facing a runoff with former Rep. Colin Allred, who had millions to spend from his abandoned Senate bid.
Zoom out: The varied reasons for these results highlight just how many anti-incumbency crosscurrents lawmakers in both parties are facing this cycle.
- Ideology: Moderate and establishment House members are defending themselves from charges of being too weak or willing to compromise with the opposing party at a moment where hyper-partisanship has never been more in vogue.
- Age: President Biden's halting debate performance in 2024 has reverberated throughout the Democratic Party, with grassroots activists trying to oust as many of the party's oldest lawmakers as they can.
- Redistricting: Texas' mid-decade redrawing of its congressional maps opened the floodgates, with Democrats forcing multiple Republicans to fight for the same district in California and potentially Virginia.
Yes, but: In North Carolina's 4th district, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) may narrowly fend off progressive challenger Nida Allam.
- That race saw considerable spending from outside groups, with Allam trying to outflank Foushee to her left and go after her on issues like Iran.
- As in the case of the Green vs. Menefee, there was an also an element of Democrats' generational civil war in this race: Foushee is 69, while Allam is just 32.
What's next: There are dozens of Democratic primaries, from Hawaii to California to Tennessee to Massachusetts, in which incumbents are trying to fend off well-funded, younger insurgents.
- On the Republican side, Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) and Young Kim (R-Calif.) are facing off for a single seat due to mid-decade redistricting.
- Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is being challenged by Trump-backed Ed Gallrein. Rep. Will Hurd (R-Colo.), who recently had his Trump endorsement rescinded, also has a primary challenger.